Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 24 June 2026
The spot price sits at $79.28/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, which is markedly subdued relative to the sharp intraday spikes recorded across the 24-hour window — prices reached $198.17/MWh around 12:20 AEST and touched $192.75/MWh during the morning peak near 17:25 AEST, with a sustained elevated band of $150–$200/MWh through the 17:00–18:30 AEST period. The current price represents a significant pullback into the base-load range, with demand sitting at 1,304.55 MW and climbing from its midday trough of around 1,150 MW as the winter evening load builds. The 24-hour price profile is distinctly two-humped, with a prolonged flat floor near $70.20/MWh through the off-peak afternoon window (23:00–04:00 AEST) and sharp escalations bookending the morning and evening peaks.
Tasmania's generation mix is currently running 1,267.62 MW from hydro and 17.67 MW from wind, with gas OCGT sitting at 0 MW. That places renewable penetration at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO₂/MWh — a position the region has held for the majority of the past 24 hours, with only brief excursions to the 0.025–0.028 tCO₂/MWh range during periods when gas OCGT was partially dispatched through the morning. Wind output is minimal at present, consistent with the near-calm conditions on the ground — wind speed is 5.4 km/h and wind potential is rated at just 0.2 out of scale. Temperature is 2.9°C with a heating demand index of 15.1, reinforcing the structural upward pressure on evening demand typical of a mid-winter Thursday.
The predispatch forecast paints a materially tighter price outlook as tonight progresses. Prices are forecast to lift to $116.54/MWh at 07:00 AEST, hold in the $109–$121/MWh range through to 09:30 AEST, then spike to $166.98/MWh at 09:00 AEST and $191.23/MWh at 13:00 AEST. Further elevated prints are forecast at $165.65/MWh (14:00 AEST), $156.26/MWh (15:00 AEST), and a session high of $196.64/MWh at 16:00 AEST before Basslink-influenced pricing pulls back to $79.24/MWh at 16:30 AEST. The pattern of alternating high and base-load prices across half-hourly intervals indicates predispatch is resolving tight reserve conditions in irregular dispatch blocks — consistent with the active Forecast LOR1 notice (Market Notice 144279) declaring a reserve shortfall of 50 MW in Tasmania between 18:00–19:00 AEST today (forecast capacity reserve 580 MW, minimum available 530 MW). Participants with flexible load should note the low-price windows identified around 16:30–17:30 AEST ($87/MWh average) and the mid-afternoon 01:00–02:30 AEST window (~$73/MWh) for optimal scheduling.
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