Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 23 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $79.23/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,289.74 MW. Over the past 24 hours, prices have been volatile rather than elevated — the overnight trough settled consistently near the $70.20/MWh market floor, mid-morning traded in a tight $79–$90/MWh band, and two sharp spikes during the morning peak (06:55–07:30 AEST) reached $222–$225/MWh before retreating. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits close to $88–$90/MWh, placing the current price modestly below that average. Demand is rising from a mid-afternoon low near 1,080 MW as the evening ramp begins, consistent with typical winter heating load in the island state. Current temperature is 6.5°C with 100% cloud cover and negligible wind, sustaining heating demand at 11.5 units with no solar or wind contribution from weather potential.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro contributes 1,063.51 MW and wind 46.09 MW, with gas OCGT offline at 0 MW, giving a total dispatched output of approximately 1,109.6 MW against a demand of 1,289.74 MW — the balance is covered via the Basslink interconnector from Victoria. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval (06:00 AEST), consistent with the sustained 100% renewable reading across virtually the entire past 24-hour period. The only brief exception was a short window around 07:00–10:30 AEST where intensity ticked up to a maximum of 0.0288 tCO2/MWh, almost certainly reflecting a small gas or carbon-attributed import component rather than local gas dispatch.
Predispatch forecasts signal a stable base price through early morning — $78–$82/MWh from 07:00 to 17:30 AEST — before two notable spikes appear in the outlook. A first elevation to $165.64/MWh is forecast at 17:00 AEST, immediately followed by a sharper move to $233.92/MWh at 17:30 AEST, directly mirroring the spike pattern observed at the same time this morning. A secondary elevation to $222.24/MWh appears at 19:00 AEST and $183.15/MWh at 22:00 AEST, with prices retreating to $70.20/MWh across the afternoon (23:00–04:00 AEST tomorrow). The repeating spike pattern at the morning and evening demand peaks warrants attention for traders with Tasmanian exposure — the $233.92/MWh predispatch print at 17:30 AEST is the single highest forecast in the outlook window.
Two market notices are directly relevant to Tasmania today. AEMO cancelled a Forecast LOR1 condition for the TAS region on 24 June 2026 at 14:00 AEST on 23 June (Market Notice 144327), removing a previously flagged reserve shortfall for today. However, a separate Forecast LOR1 for TAS on 25 June 2026 between 08:00 and 09:00 AEST remains active (Market Notice 144279