Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 22 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $70.20/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, against a backdrop that has been anything but stable over the past 24 hours. Prices spiked repeatedly into the $200–$368/MWh range during the overnight and early morning periods — peaking at $367.90/MWh at 16:00 AEST — before retreating sharply through the afternoon and evening. The current $70.20/MWh represents a normalised position well below that 24-hour average, which sits closer to $130–$140/MWh when accounting for the extended elevated periods between roughly 23:00 and 15:30 AEST. Total demand is at 1,173 MW, rising steadily off an evening trough near 1,030 MW and consistent with typical mid-evening winter ramp behaviour in the island state. Current conditions are 7.1°C with 100% cloud cover and minimal wind, driving a heating demand index of 10.9 — expect demand to continue building through the evening peak window.

The generation mix is entirely emissions-free at this interval. Hydro is contributing 794.53 MW and wind 413.06 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. That gives a combined renewable and zero-emissions output of approximately 1,208 MW against 1,173 MW of local demand, with the surplus likely flowing north across Basslink to Victoria. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is at 100% — a position that has held consistently throughout most of the past 24 hours, with only brief departures to around 96–97% during the pre-dawn period when minor gas dispatch was recorded.

The predispatch price curve signals a clear escalation through tonight and into tomorrow morning. From the current $70/MWh, prices are forecast to lift to $88.11/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then breach $212.49/MWh at 09:00 AEST before partially retreating to $158.46/MWh at 09:30 AEST. The morning peak window between 16:00 and 19:00 AEST tomorrow carries forecasts in the $152–$216/MWh range, with isolated half-hours — notably 16:00 AEST at $215.88/MWh and 19:00 AEST at $211.93/MWh — suggesting dispatch tightness during the morning ramp. Prices moderate back toward $70–$80/MWh through the midday-to-afternoon window before another elevation emerges around 01:30 AEST ($203.16/MWh). Flexible load operators should note the lowest-cost windows are forecast between 07:00–08:00 AEST ($72–$77/MWh) and 10:30–11:30 AEST ($70–$90/MWh) tomorrow.

The one Tasmania-specific market notice of direct operational relevance is the active STPASA Forecast LOR1 condition declared on 18 June for the TAS region on 25 June 2026, from 08:00 to 09:00 AEST — a 50 MW reserve shortfall (530 MW available against a 580 MW requirement). A separate LOR1 for TAS on 22 June was cancelled on 20 June, so that risk has cleared.