Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 21 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $79.28/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,363 MW. That current price is elevated relative to the overnight trough, which dipped to $60.16/MWh around 13:40–13:55 AEST, and broadly consistent with the $78–$79/MWh band that dominated the prior evening. Today's 24-hour price profile has been volatile, with two sharp excursions: a single-interval spike to $20,300/MWh at 18:00 AEST and a $1,650/MWh print at 21:35 AEST, both of which resolved within one to two intervals. Several intervals from 20:15 to 20:35 AEST remain subject to AEMO review for manifestly incorrect inputs under NER clause 3.9.2B, so those prices are not yet final.

Generation is sourced entirely from hydro (1,369 MW) and wind (19 MW), with gas OCGT sitting at zero. Renewable penetration stands at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh — a condition that has held continuously across all recorded intervals today. Demand at 1,363 MW reflects typical mid-winter morning load for the island, with current air temperature at 3.4°C and a heating demand index of 14.6, consistent with sustained residential and commercial space heating draw through the peak window.

The predispatch forecast is the most material signal for today. Prices are forecast to escalate sharply through the morning peak: $105/MWh at 07:00 AEST, $192/MWh by 07:30, $409/MWh at 08:00, and peaking at $600/MWh at 09:30 AEST before easing back toward $239/MWh at 09:00 and $95/MWh by 10:30. A second elevated window is forecast for the morning: $558/MWh at 18:00 AEST and $552/MWh at 18:30 AEST (both 22:00–22:30 UTC), with prices remaining above $230/MWh through to 21:00 AEST. Prices are forecast to normalise to the $70–$73/MWh range from 22:30 AEST onward. The optimal load shifting windows for flexible demand sit between 13:00–16:00 AEST ($68–$94/MWh forecast), avoiding both the morning and evening high-price bands.

Two reserve notices are relevant. A forecast LOR1 condition for TAS on 25 June (08:00–09:00 AEST) remains active per Market Notice 144279, with available capacity reserve of 530 MW against a requirement of 580 MW — a 50 MW shortfall. A separate LOR2 forecast for SA on 20:30–21:00 AEST yesterday was assessed as transient and not formally declared (Notice 144305). The TAS LOR1 on 25 June warrants monitoring as it coincides with constrained Basslink capacity scenarios; traders with exposure across that date should factor potential interconnector binding into position management. MSATS will also be unavailable 24 June 13:00–17:00 AEST for the SSC Release 1 upgrade (Notice 144282