Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 20 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at $81.87/MWh as of 6:25 AEST, with total demand at 4,865 MW — a relatively modest Sunday evening load sitting well below the morning peak of around 7,050 MW recorded at 6:00 AEST. Over the past 24 hours, prices tracked a clear winter pattern: a low trough of $38/MWh during the pre-dawn hours (around 14:10–15:20 AEST), a sharp morning ramp peaking above $92/MWh through the 17:30–21:25 AEST window, a midday plateau in the low $80s, and an afternoon softening back toward the $60–$70s range before recovering to current levels. The 24-hour average sits in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh, placing the current print modestly above that baseline as demand rebuilds into the Sunday evening.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal, which is contributing 4,240 MW — approximately 79% of the dispatch stack. Gas OCGT accounts for 383 MW (roughly 7%), wind is contributing 688 MW (around 13%), and hydro adds a further 49 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the current time of day. Battery dispatch is negligible at 0.05 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 13.75% as of the latest interval, down materially from the 32–33% recorded in the early hours of the morning when wind output was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity is currently 1.0115 tCO2/MWh — the highest point in the 24-hour dataset — reflecting the shift toward a larger brown coal share as demand has rebuilt and wind contribution has eased. Today's outlook is somewhat more favourable on the weather front: cloud cover is forecast to drop to 22% and maximum temperature reaches 13.5°C, but with wind potential rated at just 0.3 and solar potential at 8.5 (limited in winter), the generation mix is unlikely to shift dramatically through daylight hours.

The predispatch profile signals a significant price escalation across the coming hours and into the morning trading window. From the current $81.87/MWh, forecasts lift to $91/MWh by 08:00 AEST and $106/MWh by 08:30 AEST before a pronounced spike takes hold during the morning peak: the 17:00–18:30 AEST forecast band (06:30–07:30 UTC) reaches $100–$130/MWh, with the 18:30–19:30 AEST window forecast at $136–$184/MWh. Prices remain elevated in the $108–$146/MWh range through much of the 19:00–02:00 AEST period before gradually easing. The optimal load window, if deferral is possible, is the 12:00–14:00 AEST slot where forecast prices dip to $65–$66/MWh — a saving of approximately $118/MWh against the projected morning peak.

Two market notices carry relevance. The active inter-regional transfer notice regarding the Balranald–Buronga 220 kV line (constraint set CA_SYDS_594882A3) affects the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors, which constrains Victoria's transfer capacity toward South Australia and limits the region's ability to off