Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 20 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $70.24/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,165.72 MW. That price has been the dominant level across today's trading, but the context is a sharp lift from the overnight session — prices were running at $27/MWh in the early evening before climbing steeply from around 07:25 AEST as demand built through the morning peak, reaching $70.24/MWh and holding there with notable persistence. The 24-hour range spans $26.63/MWh to $70.24/MWh, reflecting the full swing from low overnight demand to sustained daytime pricing. Today's conditions are cold — 5°C with a heating demand index of 13 — consistent with a winter Sunday load profile sitting above 1,100 MW through most of the morning.
The generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,095.33 MW, with wind contributing 19.25 MW and gas OCGT offline at 0 MW. Total renewable penetration sits at 100% with a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh. A brief departure from this occurred between approximately 07:00 and 11:30 AEST, when carbon intensity ticked up to a peak of 0.0323 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration eased to around 95% — consistent with a period where interconnector imports or minor dispatch adjustments influenced the effective grid mix — before returning to 100% renewable and zero intensity from midday onwards.
Predispatch forecasts signal a material price escalation through tonight. Prices are forecast to hold at $70.24/MWh through to 08:00 AEST, then step up to $79–$80/MWh from 08:30–09:30 AEST, before a notable spike to $115.66/MWh at 18:30 AEST and $129.28/MWh at 19:30 AEST — the highest forecast point in the outlook. Prices then moderate back toward $80–$95/MWh through the late morning and settle near $70.24/MWh through the afternoon and evening. The morning spike window (18:00–20:00 AEST) aligns with the winter evening demand peak and warrants close attention for contract management. Optimal load windows for flexible consumers sit between 13:00–14:00 AEST ($71.24/MWh) and 14:00–15:00 AEST ($71.74/MWh), offering savings of approximately $57–$58/MWh against the forecast peak.
Two market notices are directly relevant to Tasmania today. A Forecast LOR1 notice (MN 144279) remains active, declaring a reserve shortfall in the TAS region from 08:00–09:00 AEST on 25 June 2026, with forecast reserve of 530 MW against a requirement of 580 MW — a 50 MW deficit. A cancellation notice (MN 144285) confirmed the previously flagged TAS LOR1 for 22 June has been withdrawn, providing some near-term relief, but the 25 June condition remains live and participants should monitor for updates. Separately, the Directlink interconnector control unavailability notice (MN 144287, affecting N-Q-MNSP1) is active in NSW but has no direct bearing on Basslink or TAS dispatch.