Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 20 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $82.88/MWh against a demand of 5,642 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Tracing today's price curve reveals a well-defined winter weekday shape: prices held near $26–$45/MWh through the early-morning trough (roughly 10:20–11:55 AEST), surged into the morning peak with multiple intervals touching the $90.38/MWh ceiling between 17:30 and 19:55 AEST, then eased back through the $80s into the current interval. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that baseline as evening demand firms. Today being the winter solstice, solar output is negligible — confirmed by the 0.25 MW solar figure in the current generation mix.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,907 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 619 MW, wind at 463 MW, hydro at 117 MW, and battery at 66 MW. Solar contributes effectively zero at 0.25 MW. Total renewable penetration sits at 10.46%, consistent with the sustained post-morning-peak pattern seen throughout the afternoon and evening where renewables tracked in the 9–13% range — well below the 37–38% reached during the overnight trough when demand was at its lowest and wind was contributing proportionally more. Carbon intensity is 0.7649 tCO2/MWh, elevated relative to the overnight low of approximately 0.53 tCO2/MWh recorded around 10:55–11:25 AEST. Today's 92% average cloud cover and near-zero wind potential in the weather outlook confirm solar and wind will contribute minimally across the full 21 June trading day.

The predispatch forecast points to a significant price escalation beginning early morning. Prices are forecast to hold around $80.83/MWh for the next two half-hours (07:00–07:30 AEST), then ease through the overnight trough into the $64–$70/MWh range between roughly 11:00 AEST and 14:00 AEST. The morning peak ramp is sharp: forecasts reach $90.37/MWh by 16:00 AEST, $103.80/MWh at 17:00 AEST, $120/MWh at 17:30 AEST, and peak at $187.71/MWh at 19:30 AEST — the highest single interval in the forecast window. Prices then ease through the $130s and $100s across the mid-morning before settling back toward $84–$85/MWh through the afternoon. Flexible load operators should note the optimal dispatch windows are forecast between 12:00–14:00 AEST (averaging ~$65/MWh), offering savings of $120+/MWh against the morning peak.

Two active market notices are directly relevant to QLD1 today. AEMO issued a non-conformance notice (MN 144290) for TARONG#4, declared non-conforming by -33 MW under constraint NC-Q_TARONG#4 for the period 13:25–13:45 AEST — a brief but notable deviation at one of Queensland's major baseload coal units