Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 19 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $27.20/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,078 MW — well below the overnight peak of around 1,316 MW recorded near 00:15 AEST. That overnight period told a volatile story: prices spiked to $70.22–$78.30/MWh from roughly 02:00–06:00 AEST before easing sharply through the morning as demand fell away. The 24-hour price trend shows a classic winter Saturday profile — elevated overnight pricing followed by a softer daytime band in the $27–$47/MWh range through the afternoon and early evening. The current print of $27.20/MWh sits near the floor of that daytime range.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 914 MW and wind 300 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — a position Tasmania has held for virtually the entire 24-hour window, with only brief departures to 95–97% during peak demand periods overnight when marginal gas capacity appears to have been called on. The 6.3°C temperature and heating demand index of 11.7 point to sustained baseload pressure throughout the day, though the Saturday demand trough should limit any acute stress.
The predispatch outlook is the critical signal for today. Prices are forecast to lift sharply from 07:30 AEST onward, reaching $43.15/MWh by 07:30, $46.95/MWh by 08:00, then locking in at $70.24/MWh from 08:30 AEST and holding at or near that level through to at least 21:00 AEST. The only brief relief in that band comes around 12:30–14:30 AEST (13:00–04:00 UTC), where forecasts ease to the $60–$68/MWh range before climbing back. This $70/MWh ceiling appears to reflect a Basslink or supply constraint rather than simple demand pressure, given demand is tracking at a winter Saturday level well below peak capacity.
The most material active notice for Tasmania is AEMO's Forecast LOR1 declaration (Market Notice 144279) for the TAS region from 08:00–09:00 AEST on Wednesday 25 June 2026, with forecast capacity reserve of 530 MW against a requirement of 580 MW — a 50 MW shortfall. Traders with flexible load or storage positions should note that window carries real intervention risk. A separate MSATS system outage is also scheduled for 24 June 2026, 23:00–03:00 AEST, affecting settlement and metering data access — plan meter data and B2B transaction workflows accordingly. No TAS-specific constraint or interconnector notices are currently active.