Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 19 June 2026

The spot price in Queensland sits at $80.72/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, against a total demand of 5,954 MW. That represents a notable step up from the overnight trough, where prices tracked between -$7.33/MWh and $6.72/MWh through the 11:30–14:00 AEST window — a clear sign of off-peak surplus generation clearing at or below zero. Prices then climbed steadily through the morning peak, holding in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh from around 16:00 AEST before pushing back above $80/MWh in the last 30 minutes.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,540 MW (approximately 76% of the stack), with gas OCGT contributing 592 MW (10%), wind at 454 MW (8%), hydro at 137 MW (2%), battery dispatch at 36 MW (1%), and solar at a negligible 0.4 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 10.88% at this interval, down sharply from the overnight high of 43.7% recorded around 09:00–10:00 AEST when demand was low and wind output was stronger relative to total load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.7606 tCO2/MWh, up from a daily low of 0.4827 tCO2/MWh at 10:00 AEST — the inversion of the renewable penetration curve. Today's weather shows 83% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential overnight, with conditions easing to 53% average cloud cover during daylight hours and a forecast maximum of 22.9°C; solar contribution will be modest but non-zero across the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to sustained elevation through this morning's peak. Prices are forecast to hold around $80–$85/MWh through 08:00–09:00 AEST, then climb further to a daily high of $107.25/MWh at the 22:30 AEST half-hour (12:30 UTC), before easing back toward $84–$91/MWh across the 09:00–14:00 AEST window. The afternoon and evening trajectory softens progressively, with prices forecast at $78/MWh by 16:00 AEST and declining to $66–$67/MWh by 04:00–05:00 AEST. Optimal flexible load windows fall between 11:00–15:00 AEST (03:00–05:00 UTC), where forecast prices sit in the $43–$54/MWh range — savings of $60–$64/MWh versus the morning peak.

Two active notices are directly relevant to Queensland operations. A constraints notice (MN 144275, issued 18 June) flags updated system strength limit advice for North Queensland, with revised Q-NIL_STRGTH constraint equations implemented in AEMO production systems at 11:00 AEST on 18 June — participants with generation or load in North Queensland should verify dispatch outcomes against the updated Transfer Limit Advice document (V18). Additionally, an active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144238) records that automated constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 was invoked from 08:30 AEST on 11 June to manage power system security on