Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 19 June 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $80.72/MWh with demand at 5,954 MW at 06:30 AEST, having climbed steadily from a trough of around 4,467 MW and sub-zero prices in the early hours of this morning. The demand-price relationship across today's data is sharp and consistent: the overnight nadir saw prices dip as low as -$7.33/MWh between 12:15 and 12:30 AEST as demand fell below 4,500 MW, while the morning ramp from 14:25 AEST onward pushed prices back through the $38–$53/MWh band as demand crossed 5,300 MW. By 16:20 AEST prices had cleared $63/MWh on demand of approximately 5,950 MW, and the current $80.72/MWh outcome tracks the upper bound of that demand-to-price corridor. The current 14.3°C ambient temperature with a heating demand index of 3.7 is sustaining residential and commercial load on what is a winter Saturday morning.
The forecast trajectory points to continued price escalation through today's AEST business hours. Forecast prices reach $84.63/MWh by 18:00 AEST, $87.12/MWh by 18:30 AEST, and peak at $107.25/MWh for the 22:30 AEST interval — consistent with a Saturday mid-day demand peak as the temperature climbs toward a forecast maximum of 22.9°C. The $92.89/MWh forecast at 20:00 AEST and sustained prices above $90/MWh from 19:00 to 22:00 AEST reflect the market pricing in a demand band likely to exceed the 7,500 MW levels seen during this morning's earlier workday peak. The absence of material solar output today — 83% cloud cover with zero solar potential at present — removes the usual mid-day demand suppression effect that would ordinarily soften this price run-up on a clear winter day.
Prices are forecast to ease from 22:30 AEST onward, retreating through $91/MWh, $84/MWh, and then falling sharply to $54.63/MWh by 15:00 AEST tomorrow morning as overnight demand slides. The lowest-cost consumption windows through tonight sit between 11:00 and 15:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecast prices of $43–$48/MWh — approximately $60–$64/MWh below today's anticipated peak. The active North Queensland system strength constraint (market notice 144277, updated constraint set Q_NIL_STRGTH_HAUSF) remains in play and may limit dispatch flexibility in the northern part of the state during high-demand intervals, adding a modest upside risk to the mid-day price forecasts.