Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 18 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $29.29/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,187 MW — up from a low of around 893 MW during the midday trough. The 24-hour price picture has been markedly bimodal: overnight intervals from roughly 07:00–13:00 AEST ran consistently in the $55–$78/MWh range, then collapsed to near-floor levels of $0.08–$0.47/MWh through the bulk of the afternoon as demand fell below 1,000 MW, before recovering to the high-$20s as the evening load ramp gets underway. The current price represents a modest but stable re-entry into the commercial range, consistent with evening demand rebuilding toward peak.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Hydro sits at 974.59 MW and wind at 253.68 MW, combining for total local generation of approximately 1,228 MW against demand of 1,187 MW — implying a net export position to Victoria via Basslink. Carbon intensity is recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% across the entire 24-hour period covered by available data, a figure that has held without interruption through every reported interval.
The predispatch outlook shifts the price profile materially from around 08:30 AEST. Prices are forecast to step up sharply to $63–$64/MWh from 08:30 AEST, hold in that range through to roughly 10:00 AEST (07:00 UTC), then lift further to $70–$71/MWh through the morning peak window from 07:00 to 11:30 AEST (AEST equivalent of the 21:00–01:30 UTC forecast block). Prices are then expected to ease back through the middle of the day — dropping to the low-$40s by 22:30 AEST and sub-$5/MWh from 02:30 AEST tomorrow — reproducing today's pattern of compressed midday and afternoon pricing. Traders with flexible load in Tasmania should note the significant premium forecast in the 07:00–11:30 AEST window relative to the sub-$5/MWh window opening from 02:30–04:00 AEST tomorrow.
The most directly relevant active market notice for Tasmania is AEMO's Forecast LOR1 declaration (Notice 144279) for the TAS region on 25 June 2026, from 08:00 to 09:00 AEST. The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 580 MW against a minimum available reserve of only 530 MW — a 50 MW shortfall. This notice signals a tightening reserve position next Wednesday morning and warrants monitoring for potential escalation to LOR2. Weather conditions today are mild — 9.1°C currently, peaking at 15°C tomorrow with 89% cloud cover forecast — meaning heating demand will sustain the evening load ramp but solar potential is negligible. Wind potential is low (rated 1.0–1.3 out of scale), which, combined with the LOR1 notice window next week, places operational weight on hydro availability and Basslink flow direction through the coming days.