Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 18 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $65.69/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,645 MW. Contextualising that against the past 24 hours reveals a clear intraday pattern: prices peaked in the morning ramp between 06:30–09:00 AEST at $83–$90/MWh on demand above 7,700 MW, then eased through the day as demand fell, bottoming in the $34–$40/MWh range during the 03:30–05:00 AEST window before beginning the current evening rebuild. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $60s/MWh, placing the current price broadly in line with that mean as the evening load curve steepens.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows black coal providing 4,433 MW (65% of dispatch), gas OCGT at 968 MW (14%), wind at 1,140 MW (17%), hydro at 138 MW (2%), battery at 66 MW (1%), and solar at a negligible 0.07 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 19.93%, consistent with the post-sunset floor observed throughout this evening. Carbon intensity is 0.6716 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight trough of 0.5375 tCO2/MWh recorded around 10:00 AEST when wind output was higher and demand lower, but in line with the pattern seen during gas-supported evening peaks. Wind at 1,140 MW is providing meaningful volume for this time of day; solar will not contribute materially until after 07:00 AEST with today's forecast maximum temperature of 23°C and low cloud cover of 12%.

Predispatch forecasts point to a step-down from current levels over the next two hours — $54.63/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $65.69/MWh at 07:30 AEST — before prices compress sharply into the early morning, reaching a forecast low of $25.75/MWh at 12:00 AEST and $27.25/MWh at 10:00 AEST. The morning peak ramp is then priced back in from 16:00 AEST, with forecasts lifting to $77.49/MWh at 16:00 AEST and sustaining in the $71–$81/MWh band through to 20:00 AEST. Flexible load operators and battery schedulers should note the deep overnight trough between 10:00–14:30 AEST as the optimal charge window, with the afternoon peak from 16:00 AEST onwards the primary discharge opportunity.

Two active market notices carry direct Queensland relevance. A constraints notice (MN 144277) issued at 09:06 AEST today covers updated system strength requirements in North Queensland, with AEMO and Powerlink modifying the Q-NIL constraint set — specifically updating Q_NIL_STRGTH_HAUSF and removing Q_NIL_STRGTH_CKWF equations effective 11:00 AEST. Participants with exposure to North Queensland generation or transmission should review the updated Transfer Limit Advice document (System Strength NQLD V18) on the AEMO website. Separately, a