Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 17 June 2026
The spot price sits at $25.89/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well below the levels that dominated the morning peak earlier today, when prices climbed as high as $97.85/MWh at 17:50 AEST during the demand surge to 1,345 MW. Demand has since eased to 1,141.74 MW as the evening load ramp begins in earnest. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic winter shape: sustained pricing in the $60–$90/MWh band through the morning peak, a sharp midday compression toward $44–$52/MWh as demand fell below 1,000 MW in the early afternoon, then a prolonged near-zero pricing period from roughly 00:45 to 05:00 AEST — prices held as low as $0.10/MWh for multiple consecutive intervals — before the current modest recovery.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is producing 888.2 MW and wind is contributing 274.75 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. That combination delivers 100% renewable penetration at this interval and a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh. The carbon history shows this has been the dominant position across most of the day, with only brief excursions to around 0.029–0.035 tCO2/MWh during the morning peak window when dispatch conditions appear to have drawn on marginally carbon-exposed generation. Since approximately 20:30 AEST the intensity has returned to zero and renewable penetration is back at 100%. Current conditions are 10.7°C with 98% cloud cover and minimal wind potential (8.9 km/h), consistent with the heavy overcast and low solar irradiance typical of a mid-winter Tasmanian day.
The predispatch forecast shows prices rising through the coming hours before softening again. The next interval forecast is $27.20/MWh at 07:00 AEST, climbing to $54.90/MWh by 07:30, then holding in the $55–$69/MWh range through to roughly 09:00 AEST — consistent with the overnight-to-morning demand ramp as residential heating loads build. Prices are then expected to retreat sharply, returning to the $27/MWh range by 20:00 AEST and collapsing back toward $0.18/MWh from 00:00 AEST Friday, mirroring today's near-zero midday and afternoon pricing. The morning window of $55–$69/MWh represents the clearest trading opportunity for flexible demand response or export optimisation via Basslink.
The one active market notice of direct relevance to interconnector-exposed positions is the VIC1 non-conformance for YWPS4 (notice 144275), flagging a -44 MW deviation for a brief window tonight at 01:20–01:25 AEST. While this does not directly affect TAS1, any constraint on T-V-MNSP1 flows has pricing implications for Tasmania given its reliance on Basslink for arbitrage. The 16 June MT PASA reserve notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM for the outlook period, providing a clean system adequacy backdrop for today's trading session.