Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 17 June 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $78.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,764 MW. That price level is consistent with the evening ramp that has been in play since around 15:30 AEST, when prices climbed from the mid-$60s through to a 24-hour high of $80.73/MWh reached across several intervals between 17:00 and 18:00 AEST. The overnight trough — where prices compressed into the $24–$44/MWh range between roughly 10:00 and 14:00 AEST — reflects the characteristic mid-winter demand curve: low overnight consumption dropping to a floor near 5,160 MW before the morning ramp rebuilt demand to current levels. The 24-hour volume-weighted price across the history provided sits in the high-$60s, putting the current $78.73/MWh modestly above that daily average.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is anchored by black coal at 4,704 MW, representing approximately 69.5% of output. Gas OCGT contributes 935 MW (13.8%), wind 645 MW (9.5%), batteries 476 MW (7.0%), hydro 142 MW (2.1%), and solar a negligible 13 MW (0.2%) — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 18.46%, well below the overnight peak of approximately 45% recorded around 10:30–11:00 AEST when wind output was carrying more of the load at lower demand levels. Carbon intensity is 0.6865 tCO2/MWh at the current interval, up from an overnight low of 0.4714 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the reduced renewable share as demand has climbed through the evening peak period. The 63°C cloud cover and 10.8°C ambient temperature are driving sustained heating demand with no solar contribution overnight.
Predispatch forecasts signal prices holding near current levels — $80.72–$80.73/MWh — through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window before declining to the mid-$50s around 09:00 AEST and the low-to-mid $40s through the overnight trough from 10:00 AEST onwards. The most notable feature in the forward curve is a sharp mid-morning escalation: forecasts rise to $83.73/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $90.40/MWh at 18:30 AEST, and peak at $105.53/MWh at 19:30 AEST (all AEST = UTC+10). This morning-peak price spike, forecast for the 19:00–20:00 AEST window, warrants attention for demand-side participants — the forecast then retreats to $78.73/MWh by 20:30 AEST and normalises through the afternoon. Flexible load and battery operators should note the excellent arbitrage window: overnight prices drop to $23.63/MWh at 13:30 AEST before the mid-morning peak.
On market notices, there are no active AEMO notices directly affecting QLD1 operations today. The most recent QLD1-specific non-conformance was MPP_2 on 14 June (36 MW, 10 minutes) — resolved and not current.