Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 16 June 2026
The spot price sits at $59/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, materially below the overnight peak of $77.28/MWh that persisted through the 18:00–19:00 AEST morning window. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear and familiar winter pattern: prices tracked $70–$77/MWh through the 07:00–09:00 AEST morning peak, collapsed into the $38–$40/MWh range across the midday and afternoon trough, briefly touched near-zero ($0.18–$0.74/MWh) between 03:45–04:40 AEST — likely reflecting Basslink export economics or a brief hydro dispatch surplus — before recovering through the early evening ramp. The current $59/MWh sits in the recovery phase as demand climbs from its overnight floor of ~955 MW toward the current 1,124 MW.
Generation is split across hydro at 920 MW and wind at 143 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Total dispatched output of approximately 1,064 MW against a demand of 1,124 MW implies the balance is being sourced via the Basslink interconnector from Victoria. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset — hydro and wind are covering Tasmania's local generation requirement in full, with gas offline.
Predispatch forecasts point to a stepped price escalation through tonight. Prices are expected to hold near $60/MWh for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours, then climb through $70–$71/MWh by 08:00 AEST, push to $76–$79/MWh from 09:00–10:30 AEST, and sustain elevated levels of $72–$79/MWh through to approximately 12:00 AEST. That profile mirrors the morning peak observed over the past 24 hours and aligns with mid-winter heating demand under 100% cloud cover and a current temperature of 9.7°C. The best load-shift windows for flexible consumers are forecast between 02:00–04:30 AEST tomorrow ($45.89–$56/MWh) and again from 03:30–04:00 AEST ($52–$56/MWh range).
No active market notices directly affect TAS1. The most operationally relevant active notice is a non-conformance on ORABESS1 in NSW1 (issued 16 June, up to -415 MW), which has no direct TAS1 price impact but is relevant to Basslink flow economics given NSW-VIC-TAS interconnector dynamics. The MT PASA reserve notice published 16 June identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM for the outlook period, confirming no foreseeable adequacy concern for Tasmania. Weather through to 23 June shows persistent cloud cover (94–97% through Thursday–Friday) suppressing solar across the region, with wind potential remaining low until a notable lift forecast on 23 June (wind potential 6.9). Traders should monitor whether that wind lift, combined with weaker heating demand later in the week as temperatures moderate slightly, exerts downward pressure on prices from the weekend.