Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 16 June 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $76.17/MWh at 06:30 AEST, consistent with the elevated band that has persisted through the morning peak. Reviewing the last 24 hours, prices tracked between $0.01/MWh and $78.99/MWh, with a pronounced overnight trough from roughly 13:50–15:10 AEST where multiple intervals cleared at or near zero — reflecting overnight surplus conditions. The morning ramp commenced sharply around 15:25 AEST, with prices lifting from sub-$1/MWh to $75–$79/MWh within 30 minutes as demand climbed from ~5,400 MW to over 6,500 MW. Demand now sits at 6,677 MW, well off the overnight low of ~5,000 MW but below the morning peak of 7,765 MW recorded around 17:50 AEST.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,697 MW (approximately 65% of output), with gas OCGT contributing 745 MW (10%), wind 1,072 MW (15%), battery 419 MW (6%), hydro 139 MW (2%), and solar a negligible 0.24 MW given the pre-dawn timestamp. Renewable penetration stands at 23.04%, materially lower than the overnight high of 47.5% recorded around 08:30–09:30 AEST when demand was softer and wind output was stronger relative to the total load. Carbon intensity sits at 0.653 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.458 tCO2/MWh — the step-up tracks directly with the coal-heavy morning dispatch profile as demand rose and the renewable share contracted. Grid stress scores at 72.8/100, reflecting the tight supply-demand balance at current price levels.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $76–$79/MWh range through 07:00–08:30 AEST, before lifting further to a session high of $84.50/MWh at 21:00 AEST. The 08:30–21:00 AEST window is forecast to sustain prices between $78–$84/MWh, indicating the market expects demand to remain firm and the current coal-gas stack to remain on the margin throughout the business day. A softening is then forecast from 23:00 AEST onwards, with prices stepping down to the low-$40s/MWh through the post-midnight period — broadly consistent with the pattern seen in overnight trading. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows heavy cloud cover (88%) and minimal solar potential, meaning rooftop and utility solar will provide limited offset against heating demand, which currently registers a 4.7 unit heating index at 13.3°C.

One active market notice directly affects Queensland: AEMO declared unit MPP_2 non-conforming on 14 June for a brief 10-minute deviation of 36 MW under constraint NC-Q_MPP_2 — this is resolved and has no current operational impact. Of broader note, an inter-regional transfer notice (issued 11 June, still active) flags that AEMO invoked automated constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector from 08:30 AEST on 11 June to manage power system security in Queensland — traders should verify the current status of this