Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 16 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $76.17/MWh against total demand of 6,677 MW at 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that has been underway since 05:00 AEST. The demand-price relationship over the past hour is direct and tight: as demand climbed from 6,323 MW at 06:00 AEST to current levels, price has held in the $71–$79/MWh band, consistent with the supply stack pricing at peaking plant offers. The morning's price structure reflects a winter heating profile — demand troughed near 4,973 MW around 11:25 AEST overnight, where spot prices fell to near-zero and briefly negative (touching -$3.00/MWh at 15:10 AEST), before the morning ramp drove prices back into the $75–$79/MWh range from 15:50 AEST onward. The current generation mix shows black coal at 4,697 MW, gas OCGT at 745 MW, wind at 1,072 MW, battery at 419 MW, and hydro at 139 MW, with solar contributing a negligible 0.24 MW in darkness.

Today's price outlook is shaped by a forecast trajectory that keeps prices elevated through the morning peak before easing significantly into the overnight trough. The forward curve holds prices at $76.60/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, rising to $80.73/MWh by 17:00 AEST and peaking at $84.50/MWh at the 21:00 AEST half-hour — the point at which Queensland's winter evening demand typically reaches its daily maximum. Prices are then forecast to retrace sharply, dropping to $43/MWh range by 09:30 AEST overnight and settling into the high $30s through the early hours of Thursday as demand pulls back toward its overnight base of approximately 5,000 MW. The morning re-ramp on Thursday is priced at $76.63/MWh by 16:00 AEST, consistent with today's pattern.

Demand-side context from today's market notices is limited for Queensland directly, though AEMO's MTPASA reserve notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM, removing any reliability-driven demand curtailment risk for the period. A QLD non-conformance event involving MPP_2 on 14 June is no longer operationally relevant. Weather is the key demand driver: current conditions of 13.3°C with a heating demand index of 4.7 and 76% cloud cover confirm the winter evening heating load is sustaining the current demand level, and tomorrow's forecast maximum of only 20.3°C with 88% cloud cover points to a similar demand profile repeating on Thursday. The price sensitivity evident in the data — where each 500–700 MW demand increment through the morning ramp correlates with a $15–$20/MWh price step — signals that any demand forecast miss to the upside through the 21:00 AEST peak period carries meaningful spike risk beyond the $84.50/MWh forward read.