Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 28 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $76.95/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,759 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 4,570 MW around 10:50-11:00 AEST (10.5-11am local overnight low), with prices correspondingly falling to near-zero and briefly negative territory ($0.01-$5.30/MWh) between 15:10 and 15:40 AEST as low demand met continued black coal baseload output. The current 30-minute settlement shows demand up over 2,000 MW from that trough, and price sensitivity is pronounced: each 300-400 MW step up in demand through the morning shoulder has been adding $10-30/MWh, consistent with the tightening supply stack as gas peakers and battery discharge get progressively called on.
The demand trajectory today points to a classic morning peak forming now, having already touched 7,750 MW at 18:00 AEST yesterday's equivalent trading day with prices spiking to $119/MWh in the 07:25-07:30 AEST interval. Based on the same diurnal pattern repeating today, expect demand to climb through the 7,300-7,700 MW band by mid-morning (09:00-11:00 AEST), with the forecast curve showing forward prices rising to $102-111/MWh across 08:00-10:30 AEST before easing into the $75-90/MWh range through midday as solar contribution offsets demand. Overnight forecast pricing for the coming period is sharply negative (-$1 to -$5/MWh between 00:30 and 05:30 AEST tomorrow), reflecting minimum demand conditions with black coal generation still running at 5,500+ MW and limited ability to ramp down further.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 5,511 MW (the dominant source), battery discharge contributing 519 MW, wind at 279 MW, gas OCGT at 138 MW and hydro at 82 MW, with solar at zero given the after-dark interval. Renewable penetration is 13.5% and carbon intensity 0.757 tCO2/MWh, both reflecting the low-solar overnight profile; the load window analysis flags the 01:00-06:00 AEST window tomorrow as the cheapest period, with average prices near -$2 to -$5/MWh, over $110/MWh cheaper than today's evening peak. On the demand side, no QLD-specific reserve or non-conformance notices are current, though a QLD1 non-conformance on GSTONE2 (-15 MW) was recorded overnight — a minor supply-side factor rather than a demand driver. SA reserve tightness (LOR1 conditions flagged for 07:00-12:00 and 17:00-22:30 AEST tomorrow) has no direct QLD demand implication but underscores broader NEM tightness that can support QLD export pricing via interconnector flows during the evening peak.