Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 24 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,181 MW at 06:30 AEST, up from an overnight trough of 3,854 MW around 02:30-03:00, with spot price at $61.43/MWh. The overnight period saw demand fall below 4,000 MW, driving prices into negative territory (-$7.33/MWh at 04:35) as minimum generation levels exceeded low overnight load — a pattern consistent with a cold morning (8.2°C, heating demand at 9.8) suppressing early activity but not eliminating baseload output.
The demand-price relationship today is tight and highly leveraged: as load climbed from 3,854 MW to 7,436 MW between 03:00 and 08:05, prices moved from negative through to a peak of $75.49/MWh at 06:25 during the morning ramp. Each 1,000 MW step up in demand through this window added roughly $15-20/MWh to spot price, reflecting the steep part of the supply curve as gas peakers and battery discharge get progressively dispatched. Demand has since eased back from its 08:05 high of 7,436 MW to the current 6,181 MW, with prices correspondingly softening from the mid-$70s toward the low $60s.
Forecast data points to renewed upward pressure through the day. AEMO's price forecasts show a climb from $53.75/MWh at 21:00 AEST through to a midday peak of $84.50/MWh at 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST tomorrow reference point, effectively today's midday trading peak), consistent with the historical evening/midday demand build pattern. Minimum demand overnight tonight is forecast to return to the 3,900-4,000 MW range, with negative pricing likely to recur between 00:30 and 05:30 AEST — the load windows tool flags five overnight blocks averaging -$2.50 to -$5.85/MWh, each offering $85-90/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load. Traders should note the historical pattern of rapid price escalation once demand crosses the ~6,500 MW mark, which the market approached again this morning and is likely to retest during the afternoon peak given the forecast trajectory toward $78-84/MWh.
No demand-side notices are active for QLD1 today; the only region-specific historical items are non-conformance events from mid-July (BARRON-1, MPP_2) with no current bearing on today's dispatch.