Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 15 June 2026

The spot price sits at $69.18/MWh with total demand at 1,189 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That marks a notable easing from the morning peak, where prices held firmly in the $77.26–$77.28/MWh band from around 16:35 through to 09:30 AEST, before stepping down through the $70/MWh range across the midday period and dipping to a session low near $58.89/MWh during the early evening. The 24-hour price profile is clearly two-tiered: a sustained morning block at ~$77/MWh driven by demand climbing above 1,500 MW, and a softer afternoon-to-evening period as demand retreated toward the low 1,000s MW before beginning its current recovery.

The generation mix is dominated by hydro at 989 MW, with wind contributing 36 MW and gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — a position Tasmania has held continuously since around 05:00 AEST. Earlier in the overnight period, a small residual intensity of 0.028–0.032 tCO2/MWh was recorded, consistent with minor grid losses or import accounting rather than any meaningful thermal dispatch. With 8°C ambient temperature, 100% cloud cover, zero solar potential and weak wind at 6.8 km/h, hydro is carrying the full load. Gas OCGT remains on standby but has not been called upon across the entire visible dispatch window.

Predispatch forecasts point to a step-up in prices through the coming hours. From the current $69.18/MWh, the forecast moves to $64.93/MWh at 07:00 AEST before lifting to $70.23/MWh by 07:30 AEST, then softening briefly to $60.20/MWh at 08:00 AEST. The more material signal is the 09:00–09:30 AEST window, where forecasts reach $80.65/MWh and $80.57/MWh respectively — consistent with the typical morning demand ramp under winter heating load conditions. That elevated band then retreats: prices are forecast back to $70.24/MWh from 11:00 AEST through to midday, before easing toward $60–$65/MWh across the afternoon. Flexible load operators and Basslink-connected traders should note the concentrated upside risk in the 09:00–10:00 AEST window, with savings of roughly $20/MWh or more available by shifting load to the $58.89–$60.20/MWh troughs forecast for 06:30, 10:30–11:30 AEST and across the afternoon.

No active market notices directly affect the TAS1 region. The most recently issued TAS1-proximate notice (MN 144270) relates to a completed MSATS B2B server certificate renewal — an AEMO systems change with no dispatch impact. The inter-regional transfer notice involving the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (MN 144236, APD A2 transformer outage in VIC) remains technically active in the notice register but that constraint was invoked on 10 June; traders should verify current Basslink flow limits via the AEMO Network Outage Scheduler, as any binding