Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 22 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $46.09/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up from overnight lows near zero but well below this morning's peak of $115.34/MWh recorded around 21:40 AEST yesterday. The past 24 hours show a classic Tasmanian pattern: prices collapsed to near-zero and briefly negative (-$9.59/MWh at 15:05 AEST) during the overnight trough when demand fell below 1,000 MW, then spiked into the $80-115/MWh range through the morning demand ramp as load climbed above 1,280 MW. Demand currently tracks at 1,205 MW, mid-range for the day.
Generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows hydro dominating at 1,120 MW, wind contributing 467 MW, and gas OCGT filling 126 MW — a total renewable penetration of 92.67%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-wind base. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0476 tCO2/MWh, among the lowest of any NEM region, and has held in the 0.047-0.052 range for most of today's daylight trading period after climbing to 0.11 tCO2/MWh overnight when wind output eased and gas picked up marginal load.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to ease to $49-70/MWh through the evening peak (21:00-23:00 AEST), then fall through the overnight trough to near-zero between 03:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow — several intervals forecast at $0.06-$1.42/MWh, consistent with continued strong hydro and wind availability. A secondary morning peak is forecast at $77-79/MWh around 08:00-10:30 AEST tomorrow before prices soften again into the afternoon. Weather outlook shows wind potential rising to 5.8 (avg) tomorrow before dropping sharply over the following two days, which should be watched for its impact on the evening price shape given wind's current 467 MW contribution.
On notices, AEMO has reclassified the Gordon-Chapel St No.1 and No.2 220kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning, effective from 06:07 AEST today and remaining active. This follows repeated reclassify/cancel cycles on the same lines and on the Farrell-Reece 220kV circuits over the past week, reflecting ongoing storm activity across Tas