Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 15 June 2026

The spot price sits at -$0.09/MWh at 06:30 AEST, capping off an extended run of negative and near-zero pricing that has persisted since approximately 23:00 AEST. Total demand sits at 1,493 MW. Wind is the dominant generation source at 1,772 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 40 MW, gas OCGT at 0.11 MW, and battery dispatch at 0.13 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 97.79% and carbon intensity sits at 0.0109 tCO2/MWh — effectively at the floor for a grid with any thermal generation online. The overnight price profile tells the broader story: prices ran in the $40–$100/MWh band through yesterday evening's demand peak (topping 2,076 MW around 08:15 AEST yesterday), before collapsing sharply from midday as wind generation surged and demand fell away. The transition to sustained negative pricing began around 16:00 AEST and has continued through the current interval.

The predispatch curve points to prices remaining soft through the early morning before a clear ramp into the business day. Prices are forecast at $5.94/MWh for 07:00 AEST, stepping through the low teens across the overnight window, then lifting to $43/MWh by 16:00 AEST, $56–$65/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST morning peak window, easing back to $25/MWh by 20:30 AEST, and returning to low-to-negative territory ($-3.00/MWh) by 04:00 AEST Wednesday as wind generation is expected to remain strong. The overcast forecast (100% cloud cover, 15–17°C range) eliminates solar contribution for Tuesday entirely and suppresses heating demand, keeping the daytime price ceiling relatively contained versus a cold clear-sky day. Wind potential is rated 6.4 currently with a daily average of 7.1 forecast for Tuesday, supporting continued high wind output.

One SA-relevant reserve notice warrants attention. AEMO issued Market Notice 144233 on 10 June declaring a Forecast LOR1 for SA on 17 June 2026 — specifically from 08:00–09:30 AEST and 02:30–08:30 AEST, with minimum available reserves falling below the 320 MW requirement. That LOR1 was subsequently cancelled via Market Notice 144242 on 11 June, indicating a market response resolved the shortfall ahead of time. There are no active reserve, intervention, or non-conformance notices currently affecting SA1 directly. The active MSATS B2B server certificate renewal notice (CHG0110902) is a market systems administrative item with no operational impact on dispatch or pricing.

For traders and load managers, the actionable window is clear: negative to near-zero prices persist now through approximately 13:00 AEST, with the best forecast prices between -$2.86/MWh and -$3.00/MWh in the 03:00–04:00 AEST Wednesday window. Flexible loads should target the 21:00 AEST through 05:30 AEST window for cost minimisation. The morning ramp from 16:00 AEST is sharp — $43/MWh to