Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 24 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $78.44/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1396 MW. This follows a volatile 24 hours that saw prices swing from a low of $7.96/MWh overnight to a peak of $142.77/MWh during this morning's 08:30 ramp, when demand climbed above 2200 MW. The current reading is below the past 24-hour average of roughly $85/MWh, reflecting easing evening demand and a strong wind contribution as the region moves into the overnight period.
Generation mix data shows wind leading at 591.9 MW, comfortably the largest source, followed by gas-fired generation split between CCGT (164.97 MW) and OCGT (146.93 MW), with battery output at 11.86 MW and solar at zero given the after-dark interval. Renewable penetration is running at 65.94%, consistent with the pattern seen through today's daylight hours where renewable share ranged from a low of 36-38% around midday (coinciding with peak gas dispatch and the $130-142/MWh price spikes) up to 69-70% in late afternoon and evening as wind strengthened. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.1926 tCO2/MWh, down from a midday peak near 0.36 tCO2/MWh, tracking inversely with renewable share across the day.
Pre-dispatch forecasts point to further softening overnight, with prices expected to fall to $20-33/MWh between 21:00-21:30 AEST before a brief bounce to $78/MWh around 22:00, then easing again through the early hours — a forecast low of $5.66/MWh is flagged for 02:30 AEST tomorrow. gridIQ's load-shifting analysis flags the 02:30-03:30 window as a high-value low-carbon opportunity, saving roughly $83/MWh versus peak pricing. Prices are forecast to rebound through tomorrow's morning peak, reaching $88-101/MWh between 08:00-10:00 AEST as demand returns and solar output remains constrained by heavy cloud cover (88% average) forecast for the day.
On notices, AEMO cancelled the forecast LOR2 condition for SA at 12:00 on 24 July, and no LOR2 is currently forecast in the STPASA period. A residual LOR1 notice remains active for a narrow window (03:30-04:00 AEST) on 31 July, with a forecast reser