Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 25 July 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $105.08/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, holding in the $100-110/MWh band that's dominated the evening peak since 17:00. This follows an overnight trough where prices fell to negative territory (-$11.68/MWh at 04:35-04:40) on low demand near 950-1000 MW, before climbing steadily through the morning ramp to a session high of $119.66/MWh at 12:45. Demand currently sits at 1283 MW, down from the midday peak above 1870 MW recorded around 08:20.

Generation mix at the current interval is gas-heavy: GAS_CCGT leads at 371.58 MW, followed by wind at 183.01 MW, battery discharge at 68.45 MW, GAS_OCGT at 41.85 MW, and solar at zero given the 20:30 timing post-sunset. Renewable penetration has slipped to 37.82%, down from a low-demand overnight peak above 79% around 02:30-03:00 when wind was the marginal setter. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.3148 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.119 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between gas dispatch and renewable share through the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory overnight into Monday, with prices holding near $101/MWh through 21:00-23:30 before a brief spike to $130/MWh forecast for 22:30. Prices then ease toward the $49-88/MWh range in the early hours before the standout feature: a sharp escalation through Monday's morning peak, with forecasts climbing to $130.44/MWh by 08:00, $146.12/MWh by 09:30, and peaking at $160.31/MWh at 10:00 AEST — reflecting tightening reserves as demand rebuilds. Tomorrow's weather outlook (10-14°C, 49% average cloud cover, modest 6.3% solar potential) suggests limited rooftop solar offset for that morning ramp.

On notices, AEMO cancelled the Forecast LOR2 condition for SA at 17:30 on 25 July, previously flagged for 28 July 07:30-09:00 (531 MW requirement against 506 MW available) — that reserve risk has now cleared. No other SA-specific reserve or network notices are currently active; the Tailem Bend 275kV cap