Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 23 July 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $78.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down from an overnight peak of $107.78/MWh reached around 15:30-15:35 yesterday afternoon, but well above the negative pricing seen through the early morning trough (-$3.91 to -$1.00/MWh between 02:00 and 05:00 AEST) when wind generation and low demand pushed prices below zero for a sustained two-hour stretch. Demand currently sits at 1,618 MW, off yesterday's afternoon peak above 2,220 MW recorded near 08:50 AEST. The 24-hour range has been wide — from -$3.91/MWh to $107.78/MWh — reflecting SA's typical volatility profile driven by wind variability and thin local generation depth.

Generation mix in the current interval shows wind leading at 462 MW, followed by GAS_CCGT at 221 MW, GAS_OCGT at 152 MW, and battery output at 4.4 MW. Solar is at 0 MW, consistent with the evening period and current 71% cloud cover. Renewable penetration reads 55.6%, in line with wind's dominant share, while carbon intensity sits at 0.2465 tCO2/MWh — up from an overnight low of 0.1197 tCO2/MWh reached around 05:30 AEST when renewable penetration peaked near 79.4%. The intensity/renewable relationship has tracked tightly through the day, with intensity rising above 0.30 tCO2/MWh during midday periods when renewable share dipped toward 47-49%.

Predispatch forecasts point to firming prices through the evening peak, with the 22:00-23:30 AEST window forecast at $100-127/MWh, peaking at $126.81/MWh around 23:30 AEST. Prices are then forecast to ease overnight, falling to single digits and $12-38/MWh range between 02:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, before a sharp rebound to $88-105/MWh through the Friday morning peak from 07:00 AEST onward. Low-price, low-carbon load-shifting windows are flagged between 02:30 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow, with the 05:30-06:30 AEST window offering the best economics at an average $11.98/MWh — a $114.83/MWh saving versus peak pricing.

On notices, AEMO has active Forecast LOR2