Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 15 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $70.84/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,584 MW. That marks a notable easing from the morning peak, where prices pushed as high as $91.73/MWh at 17:30 AEST and demand reached 7,860 MW around 17:45 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear mid-session trough — prices compressed into the $25–$43/MWh range between roughly 08:15 and 09:25 AEST during the overnight low-demand period, before the morning ramp drove sustained pricing in the $80–$91/MWh band from 16:30 through 18:00 AEST. The current $70.84/MWh reading reflects post-peak demand decay as the evening load profile softens.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,780 MW, representing approximately 74% of the 6,359 MW total generation recorded at the latest trading interval. Wind is contributing 1,320 MW (roughly 21%), hydro 136 MW, gas OCGT 120 MW, battery 2 MW, and solar a negligible 0.1 MW given the winter evening conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 22.94% on the latest carbon intensity reading, down from an overnight high of 48.58% recorded around 10:00 AEST when demand was low and wind output was sustaining a larger share of a smaller load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6738 tCO2/MWh, which is elevated relative to the 0.44–0.49 tCO2/MWh range observed during the overnight period and reflects the higher coal dispatch required to meet peak and shoulder demand. Weather conditions are contributing to this pattern — Brisbane is sitting at 13.9°C with heating demand at 4.1 units, light winds at 5.5 km/h, and zero solar potential, limiting variable renewable output.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting modestly over the next two hours before easing through the overnight period. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $73.07/MWh, rising to $79.79/MWh by 07:30 AEST as the evening shoulder demand firms. Prices are then expected to step down progressively — $76.70/MWh at 08:00 AEST, $53.75/MWh by 09:00 AEST, and into the $26–$40/MWh range through the 13:00–14:00 AEST overnight trough. The morning ramp is forecast to reassert firmly from 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC), with prices climbing to $78.99/MWh and extending through the morning peak to a forecast $90.73/MWh at 18:30 AEST. Load-shifting windows rated "excellent" by the optimisation model align with 10:00–10:30 AEST ($36.15/MWh) and 13:00–14:00 AEST ($26–$29/MWh).

One Queensland-relevant market notice warrants attention: a non-conformance event was recorded for unit MPP_2 on 14 June (18:20–18:30 AEST, 36 MW, constraint NC