Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 14 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $70.24/MWh with total demand at 1,334.52 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Reviewing the past 24 hours, price has oscillated in a narrow band, with a base floor near $60.26/MWh during overnight off-peak intervals and peaks reaching $77.18/MWh during the morning demand ramp between 07:25 and 09:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile is remarkably stable by NEM standards — the vast majority of dispatch intervals cleared at either $70.14/MWh or $77.16–77.18/MWh, with brief dips to the low $60s during shoulder periods. Current demand is climbing from an afternoon trough of around 1,106 MW and is tracking the typical winter evening ramp.
Generation is being met by hydro at 1,156.31 MW, wind at 93.1 MW, and gas OCGT at just 8.6 MW, totalling approximately 1,258 MW of metered generation against 1,334.52 MW of demand — with the balance likely covered by Basslink import from Victoria. Renewable penetration sits at 99.32% on the current interval, with carbon intensity at just 0.0044 tCO2/MWh. This is effectively at the practical floor for the Tasmanian grid given the trace OCGT output. Through the day, intensity drifted between zero and 0.0381 tCO2/MWh, with multiple periods of 100% renewable generation recorded during the afternoon and evening when the OCGT was offline entirely.
Predispatch forecasts signal a modest price escalation into the evening. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $70.24/MWh, but prices step up to $77.26/MWh by 07:30 AEST and hold at $77.28/MWh through 08:00–08:30 AEST, before reaching $79.28/MWh at the 09:00 AEST half-hour — the highest forecast in the predispatch window. Prices are then expected to ease back through $77.26/MWh at 09:30 AEST and return toward the $70.24/MWh floor by 10:00 AEST, where they largely hold across the daytime horizon through to 18:00 AEST. The $79.28/MWh peak aligns with the typical Tasmanian winter evening demand peak, and traders should watch Basslink flow direction and capacity closely if Victoria tightens simultaneously.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania. The notice queue contains items for QLD1 (non-conformance on MPP_2, 36 MW, now resolved), inter-regional transfer constraint activity in QLD and VIC, and a previously cancelled SA LOR1 forecast for 17 June — none of these have a direct TAS1 bearing today. The active inter-regional transfer notice for the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in Victoria (constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD, affecting T-V-MNSP1) warrants monitoring, as any binding constraint on Basslink's Victorian end could affect Tasmania's import capability during the evening peak window if hydro dispatch headroom is insufficient to cover demand without the interconnector.