Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 14 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $70.96/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,463 MW. Tracing the 24-hour price arc, the region ran through an extended negative-price period from approximately 11:00 AEST overnight through to 06:00 AEST this morning — prices bottomed at -$12.50/MWh around 12:00 AEST overnight as demand fell below 800 MW — before the morning ramp drove prices sharply higher. The peak recorded in the history window reached $97.51/MWh at 17:10 and again at 17:35 AEST during the morning demand surge, with demand cresting near 1,912 MW around 19:00 AEST. Prices have since moderated into the low-to-mid $70s/MWh as demand eases back toward the 1,463 MW mark, broadly consistent with the mid-evening settling pattern visible across the history.

The generation mix at 06:20 AEST shows wind contributing 1,449.88 MW, gas OCGT at 191.37 MW, gas CCGT at 148.72 MW, and battery at 7.17 MW. Solar generation is zero, consistent with the current pre-dawn window. Wind is supplying the dominant share of local output. Carbon intensity sits at 0.1098 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 81.08% — a material improvement from the 0.2438 tCO2/MWh and 59.96% renewable penetration recorded during the morning peak hours around 08:25 AEST, when gas plant was running hard into elevated demand. The overnight trough saw intensity drop as low as 0.0263 tCO2/MWh with renewables reaching 94.64%, driven by high wind output against very low demand.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting through the remainder of the evening, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour forecast at $83.30/MWh, the 08:30 AEST interval at $92.61/MWh, and the 09:00 AEST interval at $98.00/MWh — the highest point in the forward curve. From there the trajectory softens back through the $70s/MWh into the overnight period, before a pronounced mid-afternoon solar window drives prices toward zero and into negative territory from approximately 20:30 AEST, with the forecast reaching -$2.94/MWh by 04:00 AEST Tuesday. The forecast shape reflects tomorrow's 97% average cloud cover capping solar potential, but strong average wind potential of 6.0 keeping wind output high throughout the day. The lowest-cost load windows fall between 21:00 and 04:00 AEST, with the 23:00–00:00 AEST band forecast at near-zero to slightly negative prices.

One active market notice warrants attention for SA specifically: AEMO issued a Forecast LOR1 for the SA region on 17 June 2026 (Market Notice 144233), flagging insufficient reserve margins during 08:00–09:30 AEST and 16:30–22:30 AEST on that date — a previously issued LOR1 for that same day was subsequently cancelled (MN 144242) on 11 June, so the current