Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 14 June 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $80.17/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,661 MW. That price is consistent with a sustained evening ramp that began around 05:30 AEST, lifting from sub-$55/MWh through the afternoon into the $80–$90/MWh band that has persisted for the past three hours. The overnight trough reached as low as $24.80/MWh during the 10:00–11:30 AEST window, giving a wide intraday spread that underscores the pronounced demand curve characteristic of winter weekdays. The peak so far this period hit $101.70/MWh at 15:40 AEST during the morning ramp.

The current generation mix (as of 06:20 AEST) is dominated by black coal at 4,974 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 662 MW, wind at 1,058 MW, battery at 301 MW, hydro at 137 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.15 MW given the winter evening conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 20.98%, with wind providing the entirety of meaningful variable renewable output. Carbon intensity is 0.674 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight period when renewables were contributing over 50% of generation and intensity dropped as low as 0.397 tCO2/MWh around 10:30–11:00 AEST. The daytime renewable share has compressed as solar output is absent and dispatchable thermal plant carries the evening demand load.

Predispatch forecasts signal a near-term spike: prices are forecast at $82.48/MWh for 07:00 AEST, rising to $93.57/MWh at 07:30 AEST before easing back to $80.06/MWh at 08:00 AEST and $70.00/MWh at 08:30 AEST. The trajectory then falls away through the overnight period, with prices forecast in the $37–$47/MWh range between 09:00 and 10:30 AEST. The morning ramp on 15 June is forecast to reassert from 16:00 AEST onwards, with prices returning to the $76–$92/MWh band between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST — consistent with today's pattern. The best load-shifting window sits at 14:00 AEST tomorrow ($37.03/MWh forecast), with the broader overnight valley from 09:00 to 10:30 AEST offering sustained pricing below $47/MWh.

One active market notice is directly relevant to Queensland: AEMO declared unit MPP_2 non-conforming under NER clause 3.8.23 for the period 18:20–18:30 AEST Sunday (36 MW, constraint NC-Q_MPP\_2). This is a minor and resolved dispatch deviation. A separate active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144238) relates to constraint set CA\_BRIS\_593C7214 on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector, invoked from 18:30 AEST on 11 June and still listed as active — traders with exposure to QLD–NSW flows should verify current interconnector headroom against this constraint. Weather conditions today are mild at