NEM Overview: Sunday 14 June 2026
NEM spot prices at 06:25 AEST are orderly across the eastern states, ranging from $70.08/MWh in SA to $88.88/MWh in NSW, with QLD at $81.82/MWh and VIC at $81.38/MWh. The $18.80/MWh spread between SA and NSW is modest and not indicative of binding interconnector constraints — the V-SA link is flowing 391 MW from VIC into SA, well within its ±507/564 MW limits. The NSW1-QLD1 interconnector is carrying 595 MW south into NSW, also comfortably within limits. The notable outlier is the WA1 (SWIS) price at $200.95/MWh, reflecting that market's separate dynamics. Grid stress is elevated at 83.6/100 — consistent with a winter Monday morning demand build — while price stability scores just 17.8/100, signalling recent interval-to-interval volatility.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 38.9% against a total grid score carbon intensity of 0.6252 tCO2/MWh for NSW and 0.674 tCO2/MWh for QLD, both carrying substantial coal-fired output (NSW: 5,196 MW black coal; QLD: 4,974 MW black coal; VIC: 4,642 MW brown coal). SA is the standout with wind generating 1,450 MW against a regional demand of only 1,445 MW — renewable penetration at 81.1% and carbon intensity of just 0.110 tCO2/MWh, with gas (OCGT 191 MW, CCGT 149 MW) providing firming. TAS is running at 99.3% renewable, almost entirely hydro at 1,156 MW. Wind is the dominant variable renewable across the NEM tonight: NSW 1,115 MW, VIC 807 MW, QLD 1,058 MW, SA 1,450 MW, TAS 93 MW.
The active non-conformance notice for MPP_2 in QLD (36 MW deviation, 18:20–18:30 Sunday) is resolved and has no ongoing dispatch impact. More relevant for today's trading is the active inter-regional transfer constraint CA_BRIS_593C7214 on the N-Q-MNSP1 (Murraylink QLD direction), invoked to maintain system security in QLD — the interconnector is currently flowing just 29 MW southward, well within its 53.8 MW export limit, so headroom is limited on this link. The previously cancelled LOR1 for SA on 17 June warrants monitoring given SA's thin reserve margins flagged in recent STPASA notices, and participants should note that AEMO's Gas STTM pre-production systems are under scheduled maintenance today through Wednesday (no impact to electricity dispatch).
Today's weather outlook shifts the demand profile: VIC is waking to 5.5°C with a heating demand index of 12.5, and TAS sits at 4.3°C with 13.7 — expect residential and commercial heating load to lift both regions through the morning peak. NSW at 15.4°C is more moderate. Solar potential is effectively zero across all regions at this pre-dawn interval; the NSW daily outlook shows 81% average cloud cover today, limiting solar contribution through the afternoon. Wind potential is forecast to remain