NEM Overview: Monday 27 July 2026

NEM spot prices show a wide regional spread this morning, with NSW at $97.55/MWh and QLD at $91.38/MWh, while VIC (-$1.15/MWh), SA (-$1.05/MWh) and TAS (-$1.16/MWh) all sit in negative territory. WA, on its separate market, prints $118.61/MWh. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 909 MW northward flow, and V-S-MNSP1 is binding at its 169 MW limit, underpinning the price divergence — strong wind output in the southern states is pushing down prices there while NSW and QLD carry higher demand (9,295 MW and 6,873 MW respectively) against thinner renewable output.

Generation mix reflects this split clearly. VIC1 wind is running at 3,886 MW against 3,285 MW brown coal, giving VIC1 renewable penetration of 55.5% and carbon intensity of 0.54 tCO2/MWh. SA1 is close to fully renewable at 97.4%, with wind at 1,608 MW covering almost all of its 1,535 MW demand and carbon intensity down at 0.013 tCO2/MWh. TAS1 sits at 88.5% renewable on hydro (443 MW) and wind (511 MW). By contrast, NSW1 renewable penetration is 22.5% with black coal at 6,160 MW dominant, and QLD1 is lowest at 17.7%, with black coal at 5,777 MW against wind of just 620 MW and negligible solar given overcast, low-light morning conditions (QLD1 cloud cover 100%). NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 43.1%, with the market conditions score at 36.9 and grid stress at 52.7, indicating moderate tightness concentrated in the northern regions.

Weather today supports the current split continuing. VIC1 wind potential is elevated at 30.1% currently with a forecast average of 18.9% today, while SA1 wind potential sits at 11.2% now, easing later. NSW1 and QLD1 both show minimal wind potential (0.5% and 0.9%) and modest solar potential (20.6% and 12.7% average for the day), so expect NSW and QLD to remain reliant on thermal generation with prices likely to hold firm through the morning before any midday solar contribution eases them slightly. Cold morning temperatures across all regions (