NEM Overview: Saturday 25 July 2026
Spot prices this morning show a wide regional spread, with WA1 the highest at $134.82/MWh and VIC1 the lowest at just $20.68/MWh — a gap of over $114/MWh between the two extremes. SA1 sits at $105.08/MWh, QLD1 at $92.60/MWh, NSW1 at $90.49/MWh, and TAS1 at $48.66/MWh. The V-SA interconnector is currently binding at 611.66 MW flowing from Victoria into South Australia, which is helping keep SA prices contained despite regional demand pressure, while VIC1's low price reflects strong brown coal output (4,352 MW) alongside 1,089 MW of wind meeting a comparatively modest 5,105 MW demand.
Generation mix across the NEM this morning is coal-dominated in the eastern states: NSW1 black coal sits at 6,377 MW against 7,846 MW demand, and QLD1 black coal at 5,570 MW against 6,215 MW demand. Renewable penetration varies sharply by region — TAS1 leads at 91.8% (hydro 1,068 MW, wind 330 MW) with a carbon intensity of just 0.0535 tCO2/MWh, while QLD1 sits at only 7.1% renewables and 0.8118 tCO2/MWh. SA1 is at 37.8% renewables and NSW1 and VIC1 both sit near 19-20%. NEM-wide renewable penetration is tracking at 42% according to today's composite score, with grid stress reading elevated at 72.7 — consistent with cold overnight conditions across the southern states (9-10°C, heavy cloud in VIC1 and SA1 limiting solar potential to near zero this morning).
Weather outlook today favours limited solar recovery in the south: VIC1 and SA1 remain under heavy cloud cover (83-100%) with solar potential near zero through the morning, though QLD1 sees clear skies and stronger solar potential (28.4% average) as the day progresses. Wind potential is soft across all regions currently (0.2-3.2%), which keeps thermal and hydro generation carrying the bulk of load into the morning peak.
On the notices front, AEMO cancelled the forecast LOR2 condition in SA for 28 July at 1730 hrs yesterday, easing near-term reserve concerns, though a separate LOR1 forecast