NEM Overview: Sunday 26 July 2026

NEM spot prices are moderate across all regions this morning, ranging from $100.24/MWh in TAS1 to $137.38/MWh in SA1 — a spread of roughly $37/MWh. NSW1 sits at $122.95/MWh with demand of 9,321 MW, the highest load in the NEM, while QLD1 trades at $117.69/MWh on 7,141 MW demand. VIC1 is the softest mainland region at $105.46/MWh, and WA1 (not connected to the NEM) is at $121.12/MWh. SA1's premium reflects tight local conditions ahead of forecast reserve tightness later this week, though current flows show SA importing 172 MW via V-SA and 105 MW via the Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1), both interconnectors binding.

Generation mix reflects cold, low-solar winter conditions across the eastern states. Black coal remains the anchor in NSW1 (6,976 MW) and QLD1 (5,574 MW), while brown coal dominates VIC1 at 4,575 MW. Wind output is solid in VIC1 (1,140 MW) and SA1 (616 MW), with SA1 wind covering the bulk of its generation given gas (OCGT 292 MW, CCGT 342 MW) fills the balance. Solar is negligible across all regions at this hour, consistent with early morning conditions and heavy cloud cover in SA1 (95%) and TAS1 (86%). TAS1 continues to run on hydro (1,116 MW) with wind (317 MW) supporting an outsized 91.96% renewable share and NEM-low carbon intensity of 0.0523 tCO2/MWh.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 35.1%, with wide regional variation: TAS1 leads at 91.96%, SA1 follows at 49.35%, VIC1 at 25%, NSW1 at 20.68%, and QLD1 at 19.1%. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread, from 0.0523 tCO2/MWh in TAS1 to 0.9048 tCO2/MWh in VIC1. The grid stress score of 65 reflects the active SA1 reserve conditions — AEMO cancelled the forecast LOR2 for 29 July at 04:50 AEST, but LOR2 and LOR1 forecasts remain live for 28 and 31 July, so SA re