Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 14 June 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $70.24/MWh with demand at 1,334.52 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking firmly upward through the morning as the state moves into its winter weekday demand build. That demand level is already well above the overnight trough of around 1,032 MW recorded near 13:10 AEST Sunday, and the trajectory mirrors the pattern seen through this morning's data — demand climbed steadily from ~1,122 MW at 05:00 AEST, adding roughly 210 MW over 90 minutes. Price response to this ramp has been contained so far, holding at $70.24/MWh, but the history from today's earlier morning peak (07:30–09:00 AEST, 1,385–1,396 MW) shows the market shifts to $77.16–$77.18/MWh once demand pushes through the 1,370–1,380 MW band. That price step is the key threshold to watch as today's demand continues to rise.

The forecast price profile signals another visit to that upper tier imminently. Forecasts published at 06:01 AEST show $77.26/MWh at 07:30 AEST, rising to $77.28/MWh through 08:00–08:30 AEST, and reaching $79.28/MWh at 09:00 AEST — the highest point in the 24-hour forward curve. That 09:00 AEST spike aligns with the sustained high-demand window observed in this morning's actuals, where 1,379–1,395 MW held prices at $77.16–$77.18/MWh for nearly 90 minutes. The $79.28/MWh print suggests the dispatch stack tightens further at that demand quantum on a Monday, with Hobart's weekday commercial and heating load fully online at 4.3°C ambient and 13.7 heating degree demand units recorded currently.

After the 09:00 AEST peak, the forecast curve eases back — $73.22/MWh at 10:00 AEST, $70.24/MWh from 10:30 AEST onward through the afternoon — consistent with the mid-morning demand retreat seen in actuals today, where load fell from ~1,380 MW at 09:00 AEST to ~1,114 MW by 01:00 AEST. A secondary lift to $76.26/MWh appears at 15:00–15:30 AEST (01:00–01:30 UTC+11), likely corresponding to the late-afternoon heating demand return as temperatures remain below 12°C all day. Weather outlook for 15 June shows a maximum of 11.9°C with 84% cloud cover, removing any solar contribution and sustaining elevated heating load across the full daylight period — conditions that keep the floor demand elevated relative to warmer months and compress the intra-day price trough.

Generation is currently meeting demand with hydro at 1,156 MW, wind at 93 MW, and gas OCGT at 8.6 MW, giving a carbon intensity of 0.0044 tCO2/MWh. No Tasmania-specific market notices are active. The price-demand relationship today is straightforward: $70.24/MWh holds while demand stays below ~1,370 MW, $77