Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 23 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $52.92/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,243 MW and climbing through the tail end of the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 1,095-1,150 MW between 12:30-14:30 AEST (settlement time), coinciding with prices collapsing to near-zero and briefly negative (-$1.19/MWh at 15:10), typical of low-load, high-hydro conditions. The current 06:30 reading is well up from that trough, reflecting the start of the morning demand build as Tasmanian households and businesses ramp up ahead of the work day.
Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced once load pushes past ~1,350 MW. Yesterday's data shows this threshold triggering sharp price escalation — demand at 1,367-1,385 MW drove prices to $75/MWh, and the pattern repeats near 1,450-1,476 MW where prices held in the $61-72/MWh band for several hours through mid-morning. Below 1,300 MW, prices generally settle into the $20-55/MWh range, with hydro (currently 1,137 MW) comfortably covering load alongside wind (441 MW) and a smaller OCGT contribution (125 MW). The 5-minute forecast curve points to a firming trend, with forecast RRP climbing to $56.79/MWh by 07:30 AEST and $70.32/MWh by 08:00 AEST, consistent with demand pushing toward the 1,350-1,450 MW band seen in yesterday's equivalent morning window.
Beyond the morning peak, the forecast trajectory shows prices easing sharply from late morning, dropping to single digits ($5-10/MWh) from around 10:30 AEST through to at least 18:00 AEST, reflecting an expected demand pullback as heating load eases and hydro/wind supply comfortably exceeds requirements — weather data shows cold conditions (3.7°C, heating demand index 14.3) but negligible wind potential (3.9 km/h) and zero solar, meaning hydro remains the marginal swing source shaping the midday price floor. Traders should watch the 06:30-09:00 AEST window most closely, where the forecast curve implies a second price spike to $57-61/MWh as demand peaks, before the extended low-price window from late morning onward.
No demand-side constraints are flagged for TAS1 today —