Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 25 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $48.66/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,030 MW and climbing from the overnight trough. The region has just passed through its typical Sunday morning demand ramp, where load moved from below 950 MW around 04:00-05:00 AEST to over 1,190 MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST yesterday's equivalent period, dragging prices from negative territory (as low as -$5.18/MWh during the 03:00-05:30 AEST low-demand window) up to the $60-70/MWh band. That inverse relationship between overnight demand troughs and negative pricing is a recurring feature here, driven by high hydro availability (1,068 MW currently) and wind (330 MW) exceeding minimum demand.
The forecast trajectory points to a sharp price escalation through the morning: AEMO's pre-dispatch curve shows prices lifting from $37-64/MWh in the 22:00-23:30 AEST window to a peak forecast of $131.54/MWh at 10:00 AEST, with the 07:00-13:00 AEST block holding above $98/MWh throughout and touching $124.74/MWh at 10:30 AEST. This is a materially steeper morning peak than typically seen, likely reflecting tightening reserve margins as demand is forecast to build toward the 1,150-1,200 MW range seen in yesterday's comparable period. Traders should note the historical pattern of demand hitting 1,190-1,210 MW between 07:30-09:00 AEST correlated directly with the $60-75/MWh price band yesterday, so a forecast push toward $130/MWh implies either firmer demand growth or tighter supply conditions than that comparable session.
Price sensitivity to demand remains pronounced at the margin: a roughly 150 MW swing between the 1,000 MW overnight low and 1,190 MW morning peak has historically moved prices by more than $70/MWh in this region, underscoring Tasmania's thin reserve buffer once hydro and wind output is fully committed. By afternoon, the forecast curve eases back to $65-72/MWh through 14:00-16:00 AEST and further to $33-41/MWh by 17:30-18:00 AEST, consistent with demand tapering from its midday peak. No load-shedding or demand-side notices are active for TAS1 today; the only regional network item is the now-cancelled Farrell