Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 24 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $30.25/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 994 MW, well off the overnight peak of 1,382 MW recorded through the evening block on 23-24 July. Demand has been on a steady declining trajectory since the pre-dawn low near 900 MW at 03:00-05:00 AEST, and the price-demand relationship remains tight: the region traded as low as $0/MWh during the 900-920 MW trough between 18:00-19:30 AEST yesterday, then jumped to $70/MWh as demand climbed through 1,200-1,250 MW in the 06:00-07:30 AEST window. This overnight-to-morning ramp is the clearest price sensitivity signal in the data — every 200-300 MW of demand increase through the shoulder periods correlates with a $40-70/MWh price lift.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firmer pricing day ahead. Forecast RRP climbs from $18-30/MWh in the early morning hours to a midday peak band of $60-70/MWh between 08:00-13:00 AEST (target times 09:00-12:00 local), coinciding with the expected demand build as the cold, overcast conditions (8.5°C, 100% cloud cover, near-zero solar potential) sustain heating load. This is consistent with the pattern from Thursday into Friday, where demand above 1,300 MW pushed prices into the $60-100/MWh range, including a $101/MWh spike at 22:00 AEST on 23 July. Expect afternoon prices to ease back toward $30-35/MWh as demand tapers past the midday peak, based on the forecast curve showing $33-36/MWh from 15:00-18:00 AEST target times.
Generation mix remains hydro-dominated (940 MW) with wind contributing 481 MW and gas OCGT providing 124 MW of peaking support, holding renewable penetration at 92% and carbon intensity at a low 0.0522 tCO2/MWh. With hydro storage typically flexible to demand swings, the price volatility observed is more likely driven by interconnector flows and bidding behaviour than generation adequacy — no supply-side constraints are flagged in current notices. The active reclassification of the Farrell-Reece 220kV line as a non-credible contingency (cancelled 23 July) has been resolved, removing a transient constraint on Tasmania's interconnection