Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 14 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at **$80.17/MWh** with total demand at **6,661 MW** as of 06:30 AEST, reflecting a Monday morning that is tracking the classic winter weekday ramp. Today's demand trajectory has followed an aggressive climb from an overnight trough of around **4,088 MW** at approximately 10:45 AEST (00:45 UTC), with prices compressing to as low as **$24.81/MWh** during that soft period. The demand-price relationship through today's build has been tight: each significant step-up in load — particularly the surge from 5,542 MW at 15:00 AEST through to the current 6,661 MW — has translated directly into prices lifting from the mid-$50s/MWh range into the high $70s to low $80s/MWh band. The sharpest price sensitivity occurred around 15:40 AEST (05:40 UTC) when demand crossed 6,075 MW and the spot briefly touched **$101.70/MWh**, the session high, before settling back as supply responded.

The current generation mix shows black coal carrying **4,974 MW**, gas OCGT at **662 MW**, wind at **1,058 MW**, battery at **301 MW**, and hydro at **137 MW**, with solar now effectively zero at 06:30 AEST. Grid carbon intensity sits at **0.674 tCO2/MWh** with renewables at **20.98%** — a marked deterioration from the overnight period when low demand allowed renewables to reach above 54% penetration and intensity dropped to **0.397 tCO2/MWh**. That overnight softness is now fully unwound as dispatchable plant has been brought back online to service the morning peak.

Forward forecasts indicate the price is set to climb further before easing. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour is forecast at **$82.48/MWh**, rising to a forecast **$93.57/MWh** by 07:30 AEST — consistent with demand continuing to push toward and potentially above the session peak of **7,533 MW** recorded at 17:50 AEST (07:50 UTC) in today's earlier price history. Prices are then forecast to ease through the morning as heating demand plateaus, dropping toward **$47.28/MWh** by 09:00 AEST (23:00 UTC) and bottoming near **$37.03/MWh** around 14:00 AEST (04:00 UTC tomorrow). The day's second demand ramp into the evening peak — historically 16:00–20:00 AEST for winter weekdays — is not yet fully reflected in the visible forecast window, but today's pattern suggests prices will return to the $75–$90/MWh range as demand builds again from the afternoon trough.

Note that the Blackwall–Tarong 875 275kV and South Pine–Tarong 832 275kV planned outages completed over the weekend with constraint sets Q-TRSP_832 and Q-X_TRSP+TRBK2 now revoked, removing that inter-regional transfer restriction ahead of today's demand peak. The MPP_2 non-conformance event of 36 MW during the 18:20–18:30 AEST window on Sunday was brief