Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 22 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,766 MW as at 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $80.84/MWh — down from the overnight evening peak but still elevated relative to the sub-$50/MWh trough recorded around 13:45-13:50 AEST yesterday. The data shows tight demand-price coupling: every push above ~7,000 MW through the morning shoulder yesterday drove prices into the $90-115/MWh band, with the sharpest spike to $114.88/MWh at 11:40 AEST coinciding with demand near 7,040 MW. Conversely, the overnight trough (02:00-05:00 AEST, demand 5,300-5,600 MW) saw prices compress to $41-65/MWh, confirming QLD's price curve is highly sensitive to load once demand clears the 6,500 MW mark.
The forecast trajectory points to a classic morning ramp today: AEMO's price forecast climbs from $46.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST to a peak band of $93-105/MWh between 08:00-11:00 AEST, matching the pattern seen yesterday when demand pushed through 7,300-7,700 MW mid-morning. This morning peak is the key price risk window — cold overnight temperatures (12.3°C, zero solar potential currently) mean heating load is supporting demand into the ramp, and with cloud cover at 100% this morning, rooftop solar offset will be minimal until skies clear later (forecast average solar potential today is just 7.6%). Expect prices to ease back into the $55-85/MWh range through the afternoon as demand tapers below 6,000 MW, consistent with yesterday's 14:00-18:00 AEST pattern.
On the supply side, generation mix at 20:00 AEST (overnight) shows black coal carrying 5,726 MW of the ~6,445 MW total, with wind at 348 MW, gas OCGT at 174 MW, hydro at 83 MW, and battery discharge at 114 MW — renewable penetration is low at 8.46% given the overnight/low-solar conditions, with carbon intensity at 0.799 tCO2/MWh. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active today; the only live notices affecting broader NEM conditions concern TAS1 network contingencies and a cancelled SA reserve warning for 29 July, neither of which directly constrains QLD supply. Traders should watch the 08