Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 23 July 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $63.87/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,909 MW and climbing sharply — up from 6,431 MW just 30 minutes earlier. This morning ramp is the key story: demand has risen roughly 2,000 MW since the overnight trough of 4,752 MW (touched around 14:45 AEST equivalent overnight), and price is tracking that trajectory closely, having spiked to $86.24/MWh when demand crossed 6,800 MW during yesterday's equivalent morning ramp.

The demand-price relationship in QLD today is highly elastic above the 6,500 MW mark. Once demand pushes past that threshold, price responds fast — yesterday's data shows $65-85/MWh readings clustering in the 6,600-7,700 MW band during the 06:00-10:00 AEST window, versus sub-$45/MWh prices when demand sat below 6,000 MW overnight. With gas OCGT (124 MW) and battery (588 MW) both dispatching alongside 5,295 MW of black coal, the marginal unit setting price during the ramp is likely mid-merit gas or storage, which explains the volatility — five-minute swings of $10-20/MWh are common as load steps up in the 6,000-7,000 MW range.

AEMO's forecast points to a firm demand and price build through the morning, with forecast RRP climbing to $88.86/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $94.51/MWh around 09:30 AEST as the morning peak locks in. This aligns with the historical pattern seen yesterday, where demand peaked at 7,723 MW near 08:25 AEST with prices holding in the high $70s to low $80s/MWh. Expect a similar demand curve today: a shoulder peak this morning, a midday trough as demand eases into the 6,000-6,900 MW range through early afternoon, then a secondary evening peak from 18:00-20:30 AEST pushing demand back toward 6,900-7,000 MW, consistent with the current 20:30 reading. No load-shedding directions or non-conformance notices are active for QLD today, and the only QLD-specific notice on file is a resolved non-conformance event from 21 July, so no active demand-side constraints are affecting today's outlook.

Renewable penetration at the current interval sits at 26.07%, with wind contributing 1,218 MW — a me