Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 13 June 2026
The Tasmania spot price sits at $70.14/MWh against a total demand of 999 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Scanning the past 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $19.67/MWh during the 05:25 AEST interval through to a peak of $79.20/MWh around 10:50–11:00 AEST, with the bulk of overnight and morning trading settling in the $70–$77/MWh band. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits broadly in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh, putting the current price marginally below that central tendency as demand eases back toward the 1,000 MW mark from a morning peak above 1,240 MW.
Generation is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 606 MW and wind 351 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. That combination places renewable penetration at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh — a reading that has been sustained for the vast majority of the past 24 hours, with only a brief period between approximately 00:30 and 05:00 AEST where small interconnector flows pushed intensity marginally above zero (peaking at 0.0334 tCO2/MWh before returning to zero). The 6.3°C current temperature with a heating demand index of 11.7 is typical for a Tasmanian mid-winter Sunday and is consistent with demand sitting at baseline weekend levels.
The predispatch curve points to a near-term lift. The next half-hour forecast (07:00 AEST) sits at $77.16/MWh before easing to $67.60/MWh at 07:30 AEST and then consolidating around $70.14/MWh through until approximately 14:00 AEST. The most notable move in the forward profile is a step up to $77.16–$77.18/MWh across the 18:00–21:00 AEST window, consistent with the evening demand ramp as temperatures fall further. The cheapest window in the outlook is the 13:00 AEST half-hour at $60.26/MWh — a modest dip worth monitoring for flexible load scheduling. Tomorrow's weather outlook (13°C max, 43% average cloud cover) implies wind generation remains the primary variable; wind potential softens across the week and cloud cover builds significantly from Monday onwards, which may bring hydro dispatch into sharper focus to compensate.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania. The notice queue contains a non-conformance for NSW unit WTAHB1 (134 MW, now resolved), Queensland inter-regional transfer variations relating to the Blackwall–Tarong and South Pine–Tarong 275 kV line outages (constraint sets revoked as of 08:40 AEST 13 June), and a VIC inter-regional notice involving the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer with constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector — the Terranora–Victoria link that is the primary channel between Tasmania and the mainland. Traders with exposure to Basslink flows should note this constraint remains active and may influence the degree to which Tasmania can export into Victoria during the evening peak window.