Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 13 June 2026
The spot price in South Australia sits at $58.61/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,309 MW. That price marks a significant comedown from the morning peak corridor, where prices ran consistently in the $65–$86/MWh range between approximately 17:00 and 02:00 AEST. The overnight trough tells the fuller story: SA cleared negative prices for an extended stretch from roughly 06:30 to 12:00 AEST — bottoming near -$3/MWh — before gas-fired generation stepped up as wind output eased and demand climbed through the morning peak. The 24-hour arc has been a textbook winter wind-to-peak gas transition.
The current generation mix at 05:55 AEST comprises wind at 789 MW (61.9% of the dispatch stack), gas CCGT at 258 MW (20.2%), gas OCGT at 194 MW (15.2%), and battery at 18 MW (1.4%). Solar contributes 0 MW, consistent with the 06:30 AEST timestamp and clear winter overnight conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 64.09% with carbon intensity at 0.2007 tCO2/MWh. This is a material step up from the ultra-low intensity readings of 0.013–0.020 tCO2/MWh recorded during the negative-price window in the early morning hours, when renewable penetration was exceeding 96%, and reflects the increased gas dispatch now supporting the morning demand load.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $60–$74/MWh range through to approximately 08:30 AEST, before a sharper lift carries the region into the $77–$85/MWh band across the 09:30–11:30 AEST window — the anticipated peak demand period on this cool Sunday morning with temperatures at 7.8°C and heating demand of 10.2 units. Prices are then forecast to ease through the afternoon into the $50–$67/MWh range from 13:00 AEST onward. Critically, overnight forecast prices collapse back toward zero and negative territory from approximately 10:30 AEST Sunday night, reaching as low as -$4/MWh around 13:00–14:00 AEST Monday morning, before demand and the morning ramp push prices back above $68/MWh from 16:30 AEST Monday. Flexible loads and battery operators have a clear arbitrage window from 10:30–16:00 AEST Monday.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant item for SA is AEMO's Forecast LOR1 notice (MN 144233) for the SA region on 17 June 2026, covering 08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30 AEST — though that LOR1 was subsequently cancelled via MN 144242 on 11 June. No active reserve or intervention notices are currently in force for SA. Separately, AEMO reviewed several early-morning intervals (02:40–03:05 AEST) for manifestly incorrect inputs under clause 3.9.2B; prices for the 02:40 interval were subsequently confirmed unchanged. Those intervals — which printed $10–$22/MWh — appear market-reflective and stand. No SA-specific non-conformance or interconnector notices