NEM Overview: Saturday 13 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM are orderly this Sunday morning, ranging from $55.81/MWh in SA to $70.71/MWh in NSW as of 06:25 AEST, with Queensland close behind at $69.62/MWh and Tasmania at $70.14/MWh. Victoria sits at $58.53/MWh, keeping the NSW-VIC spread at roughly $12/MWh — notable given VIC1-NSW1 interconnector flow is running at 1,003 MW northward, near but not binding against its 1,191 MW export limit. The outlier is Western Australia at $108.69/MWh, reflecting the SWIS operating independently under its own tighter supply conditions this morning. Overall demand is typical for a winter Sunday, with NSW carrying the heaviest load at 6,621 MW and SA the lightest NEM region at 1,314 MW.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 42.5% on the grid stress score snapshot, though the regional picture is uneven. Tasmania is 100% renewable on hydro and wind (606 MW and 351 MW respectively) with the Basslink T-V-MNSP1 carrying zero net flow at present. SA is at 64.1% renewable, with 789 MW of wind dominating a 1,314 MW demand base and gas OCGT and CCGT filling the remainder. NSW reaches 28.5% renewable penetration — wind at 868 MW and hydro at 718 MW are meaningful contributors alongside 4,256 MW of black coal. Queensland is the lowest of the NEM regions at 18.9% renewable, with 926 MW of wind and 137 MW of hydro backing 3,921 MW of black coal and 654 MW of gas OCGT. Victoria's mix is anchored by 4,683 MW of brown coal with 405 MW of wind and 338 MW of gas OCGT; solar contribution is zero across all regions in this pre-dawn interval.

Carbon intensity reflects that generation mix directly: Tasmania records 0 tCO2/MWh, SA 0.201 tCO2/MWh, NSW 0.627 tCO2/MWh, Queensland 0.687 tCO2/MWh, and Victoria the highest at 1.084 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress is elevated at 84.1 on the scoring index, and price stability is low at 34 — a combination worth watching as the morning heating ramp approaches in Victoria (current temperature 9.2°C, heating demand index 8.8) and Tasmania (6.3°C, heating demand 11.7). SA is also cold at 7.8°C with a heating demand reading of 10.2, and with the Heywood V-SA interconnector currently importing 97 MW into SA, any uplift in SA demand through the morning will draw on Victorian generation.

Two active notices require attention today. A non-conformance on unit WTAHB1 in NSW (134 MW, constraint NC-N_WTAHB1) from Saturday remains active and traders should confirm whether that unit has returned to compliance ahead of today's solar shoulder period. More significantly, an inter-regional transfer notice for Queensland remains active — the Blackwall–Tarong 875 275kV and South Pine–Tarong 832 275kV planned outages were scheduled through to 17:00 AEST