Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 13 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $58.53/MWh with demand at 4,841 MW as of 06:25 AEST, representing a significant retreat from today's peak. The demand trajectory tells the full price story: demand climbed from around 4,550 MW in the early hours to a session high near 6,680 MW between 17:35–18:45 AEST, where prices locked in a sustained band of $70–$75/MWh. That sustained elevation above 6,500 MW across the morning and midday periods kept prices anchored in the $63–$75/MWh range for roughly eight consecutive hours — a notably tight price-to-demand relationship driven by winter heating load on a clear, cold day (current temperature 9.2°C, heating demand index 8.8).

The price sensitivity to demand shifts is pronounced today. Below 5,000 MW — where demand sits now — prices are settling in the high $50s. Between 5,500–6,000 MW, prices ran $55–$70/MWh. Above 6,200 MW, the market consistently priced $68–$83/MWh, with brief spikes to $83.85/MWh at 13:50 AEST when demand reached 5,383 MW — suggesting supply stack tightness at that level rather than pure volume pressure alone. The overnight period carries a different dynamic entirely: from roughly 06:00–11:00 AEST (UTC+10), when demand was between 5,550–5,665 MW, prices actually ran near zero or slightly negative, pointing to surplus conditions that are now well behind us.

The forward curve shapes today's remaining outlook clearly. Forecasts point to prices lifting to $65.71–$74.69/MWh across the next two hours (07:00–08:30 AEST) as Sunday evening demand edges up from its current 4,841 MW — consistent with the historical pattern in this dataset where demand climbs back toward 4,700–4,900 MW through the early evening. After that, the curve softens materially: prices are forecast to drop to $55.05/MWh by 09:00–10:30 AEST, then fall further to $19–$35/MWh in the 11:00–15:30 AEST window as overnight demand troughs. The steepest price recovery arrives from 16:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecasts reaching $78–$86/MWh across the 17:00–18:30 AEST window — the Monday morning demand ramp on what is forecast to be another cold day (tomorrow's maximum 13.6°C).

One demand-side factor worth noting: the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in Victoria (Market Notice 144236, invoked 10 June) remains active and has constrained the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector. This limits import headroom from Tasmania precisely when Victoria is running high heating demand, placing more pressure on local dispatch and contributing to the sustained mid-range pricing seen through today's peak. Flexible load operators and battery schedulers should note the deep overnight trough — prices forecast as low as $19.18/MWh at 13:30 AEST — as the primary low-cost window before tomorrow's morning ramp reprices sharply upward.