Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 22 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $37.48/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,246 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 5,000-5,100 MW between 03:00-04:30 AEST, coinciding with negative pricing (-$1.15/MWh) as low demand met continued wind output (2,235 MW) and minimal underlying load. The current 06:30 reading captures the start of the morning demand ramp, up from the 6,063 MW low at 00:50 AEST.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today. Tracking the past 24 hours, every demand surge above 7,000 MW pushed prices into the $80-130/MWh band, peaking at $127.60/MWh when demand hit 7,154 MW at 21:05 AEST (07:05 local) yesterday's equivalent morning peak. The evening peak saw demand reach 7,975 MW at 07:55 UTC (17:55 AEST) with prices at $107.98/MWh, and the pattern held tight through the 08:00-13:00 UTC window where demand held above 7,300 MW and prices ranged $90-130/MWh. This tight coupling reflects brown coal (4,682 MW) and wind (2,235 MW) as the dominant supply stack, with limited fast-response capacity to absorb demand spikes without price escalation.
For today's trajectory, forecast data shows demand-driven price step-ups at 21:00-22:30 AEST tonight ($74-78/MWh range) as evening peak load builds, before overnight demand collapses drive prices to near-zero or negative between 02:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow. A second, sharper price response is forecast for the 07:30-13:00 AEST window tomorrow, with prices climbing to $86-89/MWh as morning demand ramps mirror today's pattern — reinforcing that VIC's price outlook is fundamentally demand-driven given cold, low-solar conditions (7.1°C, 2% cloud but only 14% average solar potential forecast for the day) and heating demand at 10.9 on the index limiting rooftop PV's ability to flatten the curve.
No load-shedding or demand-response notices are active for VIC1 specifically; however, traders should note the reclassified credible contingency on Tasmanian interconnector lines (Gordon-Chapel St) due to lightning, which