Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 21 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $57.68/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,264 MW, rebounding sharply from overnight lows where prices fell as low as -$1.10/MWh between 5,000-5,200 MW of demand in the 04:00-06:00 window. This morning's demand ramp is already pushing prices higher, mirroring the pattern seen yesterday when demand climbed from 5,600 MW to over 8,100 MW between 06:00 and 18:00, driving prices from single digits to a peak of $187.55/MWh at 7,891 MW around 07:35.
The price-demand relationship in VIC1 is highly non-linear above 7,500 MW. Yesterday's data shows prices holding near $80-110/MWh through the 6,500-7,500 MW band, but once demand pushed past 7,800 MW into the evening peak (17:35-18:00 AEST equivalent), prices jumped to the $130-190/MWh range within 30-45 minutes. Today's AEMO forecast trajectory confirms this pattern will repeat: forecast prices rise from $19-27/MWh in the current low-demand period to $60/MWh by 17:00 AEST, climbing to $89-110/MWh through the 18:00-20:30 window as morning demand builds — consistent with typical winter peak timing.
Today's demand outlook is shaped by cold, overcast conditions — 9.5°C currently with 100% cloud cover and heating demand at 8.5 (versus zero cooling demand), reinforcing a winter morning/evening double-peak profile rather than a single afternoon peak. Solar potential is negligible this morning (0%) but firms to 10.2 average later in the day, meaning the morning ramp (07:00-11:00 AEST) will lean on wind, brown coal, and battery dispatch, currently running at 3,516 MW wind, 3,561 MW brown coal and 240 MW battery output. Traders should note the AEMO forecast has prices peaking near $109-110/MWh around 10:30-11:30 AEST rather than in the evening, an earlier peak than yesterday's pattern, likely reflecting cold-morning heating load compounding with the sub-optimal solar contribution under heavy cloud cover.
The active AEMO notice on the Ballarat-Berrybank 220kV line and Berrybank wind farms (reclassified as a credible conting