Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 24 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $6.81/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,196 MW, well below yesterday's overnight trough near 4,700-4,900 MW but still far under the evening peak of 8,218 MW recorded at 08:15 UTC (18:15 AEST) yesterday. The current interval reflects the pre-dawn demand ramp beginning to build off overnight lows, with wind contributing 2,562 MW and brown coal at 3,410 MW covering the bulk of the 5,196 MW load — solar remains at zero given full cloud cover (100%) and sunrise still ahead.

Price sensitivity to demand in Victoria remains steep once load pushes past 7,500 MW. Yesterday's data shows prices holding below $30/MWh through most of the 6,200-6,900 MW demand band overnight, then escalating sharply once demand cleared 7,300 MW into the evening — peaking at $110.76/MWh when demand hit 8,186 MW at 08:00 UTC (18:00 AEST). This non-linear response indicates the region's marginal generation stack tightens materially above 7,500 MW, likely as gas peaking plant is called in behind brown coal and wind.

Today's forecast trajectory points to a repeat pattern: prices are forecast to stay low ($5-11/MWh) through the morning shoulder to around 06:00 AEST, then step up to $56.05/MWh by 07:00 AEST and climb toward a $74-78/MWh band between 08:30 and 22:00 AEST as demand builds through the day. The forecast shows a brief pullback to $63.81/MWh at 14:00 AEST before a sharp collapse to $10.50/MWh forecast from 14:30 AEST, consistent with the low-demand shoulder pattern seen yesterday afternoon when demand fell to 5,100-5,300 MW range. Cold conditions today (max 13.8°C, heating demand elevated at 6) with minimal solar potential (0.2) and weak wind potential (1.7) support sustained heating load through the evening peak, reinforcing the risk of prices tracking toward the $70-80/MWh band during the 08:30-13:00 AEST window flagged in the forecast.

No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active today; the relevant network item is the cancelled non-credible contingency reclassification on the Ballarat-Ber