Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 13 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 999 MW and $70.14/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand tracking a clear winter evening recovery after troughing near 910 MW around 06:30–06:40 AEST. The price response to today's demand build has been orderly — spot cleared in the high-$70s when demand pushed above 1,060 MW through the 07:30–09:00 AEST window, then stepped back as load eased through the mid-morning to a 1,060–1,090 MW range. The afternoon saw demand fall sharply to sub-920 MW between 02:10 and 03:30 AEST, dragging prices to $60.10/MWh and producing isolated prints as low as $19.67/MWh at 04:25 AEST — reflecting the loose supply stack at those load levels. Current demand at 999 MW sits near the boundary where Tasmania's dispatch stack transitions from floor-adjacent pricing into the $70/MWh band, making the next 100–150 MW of demand growth the key price lever this evening.

The forecast demand trajectory points directly to a second price step-up. AEMO's pre-dispatch has the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) clearing at $77.16/MWh, consistent with demand returning toward the 1,060–1,100 MW range seen earlier today at that price level. From 08:00 AEST onwards the forecast settles back to the $70.14/MWh band through to early afternoon, before edging marginally higher into the $71–72/MWh range during the mid-morning peak window of 08:00–11:00 AEST — where today's data confirmed demand held between 1,160 and 1,250 MW. The $77/MWh forecasts at 08:00–11:00 AEST (UTC 22:00–01:00) align with that same demand corridor, suggesting the market is pricing a repeat of the morning demand profile for tomorrow's equivalent period.

Generation is currently 606 MW hydro and 351 MW wind across a 957 MW dispatch total, with OCGT at zero output. The sub-1,000 MW current demand is comfortably within combined hydro-wind capacity, which explains the $70/MWh floor pricing. As demand builds toward and above 1,050 MW this evening, the key variable is whether wind output is sustained — at 351 MW wind is providing meaningful volume, but at 6.1 km/h surface winds and a forecast of reduced wind potential through today, any softening of wind output would compress the effective supply margin and firm up the $77/MWh price band sooner. The lowest-price opportunity in the forecast window is the 03:00 AEST slot (13:00 UTC) at $60.26/MWh, consistent with the early-afternoon demand trough pattern evident in today's data.