Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 13 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh with demand at 5,682 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well off the morning peak of 7,264 MW reached around 17:35 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been tight and consistent: as demand climbed from an overnight trough near 4,307 MW — where prices briefly printed negative down to -$2.37/MWh — through the morning ramp, spot prices tracked upward in lockstep, reaching a sustained band of $80–$89/MWh once demand exceeded 7,000 MW between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST. The single intraday outlier was $97.73/MWh at 23:50 AEST as demand sat around 5,975 MW, suggesting a tightening in available dispatch capacity at that interval rather than a pure demand driver. Through the mid-morning plateau of roughly 6,600–7,200 MW (08:00–11:30 AEST), prices held a remarkably stable corridor of $76.69–$86.80/MWh, indicating a relatively flat marginal cost stack at those demand levels.

The demand trajectory for the remainder of today points lower and then back up. Demand is currently in the post-peak wind-down typical of a winter Sunday evening, easing from the 7,000+ MW range seen this morning toward an expected overnight trough. The forecast price curve reflects this directly: prices are projected to ease to $70/MWh by 08:00 AEST, fall to $37.99–$40/MWh in the 09:00–09:30 AEST window, then compress further to $11.29/MWh at 13:30 AEST and a low of $25.90/MWh at 10:00 AEST as overnight demand drops off. The morning demand ramp on 14 June is then expected to push prices back firmly above $70/MWh from 16:00 AEST, with the forecast peak reaching $95.11/MWh around 18:00 AEST as winter morning demand builds — broadly replicating the pattern seen across today's trading.

One network factor is relevant to today's price outlook: a planned outage of the Blackwall–Tarong 875 275kV line and South Pine–Tarong 832 275kV line was active from 08:40 AEST with associated constraint sets Q-TRSP_832 and Q-X_TRSP+TRSK2 revoked on completion. The South Pine–Tarong outage was scheduled to end at 17:00 AEST today, meaning transmission constraints on the Tarong corridor are clearing as demand eases into the evening — limiting any upside price risk from network-driven dispatch inefficiency for the overnight period. An active inter-regional constraint on N-Q-MNSP1 (constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214) remains in force, which continues to influence the QLD–NSW interconnector flow envelope and may tighten the available import margin should Queensland demand recover faster than forecast on the morning ramp.