Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 12 June 2026
The spot price in Victoria sits at -$2.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,458 MW — a low-demand Saturday morning profile. Negative pricing has dominated the overnight period, with the 24-hour session ranging from a trough of -$15.41/MWh through to a brief spike of $88.35/MWh during the 17:25–17:30 AEST morning peak window, and one anomalous interval at -$614.77/MWh at 17:40 AEST that was flagged for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review under clause 3.9.2B of the NER. AEMO subsequently confirmed that interval's prices unchanged. Three further intervals — 13:00, 13:05, and 13:10 AEST (03:00, 03:05, 03:10 UTC) — remain subject to active review for the same reason as of this briefing.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is split almost evenly between brown coal at 3,062 MW and wind at 2,941 MW, with hydro contributing a nominal 1 MW and battery dispatch at 1 MW. Gas CCGT, gas OCGT, and solar are all at zero output. Renewable penetration sits at 49.01%, with carbon intensity at 0.6221 tCO2/MWh. The carbon history across today's session has oscillated between 0.5691 and 0.6564 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the interplay between wind generation levels and the baseload brown coal floor. Cloud cover is 100% and solar potential is zero, consistent with a mid-winter overcast Melbourne day, so no solar contribution is expected through the morning.
The predispatch curve signals a decisive shift in price trajectory through today's business hours. Prices are forecast to remain negative or near-zero from now through approximately 13:30 AEST (03:30 UTC), before climbing sharply to $76–$80/MWh from 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) onwards and holding in the $75–$87/MWh band through the afternoon and into the early evening. The peak forecast sits at $86.31/MWh at 23:00 AEST (13:00 UTC). Wind potential drops markedly today — average wind potential is forecast at just 11.9 versus 25.6 currently — which, combined with zero solar and sustained winter heating demand as temperatures sit between 12.8–15.8°C, explains the sharp afternoon price uplift. The APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage notice (MN 144236) invoking constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector from 10 June remains active and continues to affect import capacity from Tasmania, a relevant factor for afternoon supply tightness.
Grid stress scores at 77.7 and market conditions at 42.2 reflect the combination of low overnight prices and the looming afternoon demand-supply squeeze. Flexibility operators and large loads should note the current negative-price window as a charging or consumption opportunity before the step-change in price expected around 16:00 AEST. The ongoing MII reviews on early-morning intervals do not affect the current trading position but should be tracked for any retrospective settlement adjustments.